The Green Light Is On; What Is Next?

Since the signing of the Dayton Agreement, the European Union has been among the international organisations that have helped Bosnia and Herzegovina to build state apparatuses, initially in an authoritarian way and with the strong position of the High Representative and later as a mediator and a strengthener of state institutions. In addition to direct assistance, EU membership has been a vision and engine for BiH to stabilise the country (Blagovcanin, 2016). Relations have often been, and continue to be, affected by personal disputes, which have partly hindered BiH’s progress. Noting that BiH has one of the most, if not the most, complicated political systems in the world, the international community is aware of the pitfalls that can sometimes arise in relations. Although conditional, BiH has nevertheless reached the possibility of opening accession negotiations. The negotiation of the acquis chapters still has to be preceded by an intergovernmental conference and screening by the European Commission. However, Bosnia and Herzegovina has received a clear signal towards the fulfilment of its European path through EU membership.

An important point, which may be contentious internally, will be the election of a chief negotiator to lead the negotiations between BiH and the EU. Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik announced that since the foreign minister is a Bosniak and the deputy foreign minister is a Croat, the chief negotiator should be a Serb. However, the negotiator’s position mainly requires an expert who can form an expert team so that the ambitions of BiH’s accession to the EU in 2030 can be realistic. An expert who is open to taking advice from other countries‘ members or candidates so that the conclusion of negotiating chapters is not an endless saga. Countries that joined the EU in the 2000s could provide assistance and have extensive experience in meeting the criteria and subsequently concluding negotiating chapters. 

Conclusion

After the crisis and war years of the 1990s in the Western Balkans region, the perspective of membership in the European Union was a good springboard for the newly formed countries to act internationally. Decades of moving closer to the EU without a definitive goal, however, have brought a certain stagnation and impatience on the part of the region’s countries and a softening on the part of the EU. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the growing influence of China in the region have forced the EU to rethink its approach to the Western Balkan countries. „We have realised that it is not enough just to wait for the Western Balkans to move closer to us,“ von der Leyen told the European Parliament. „It is not enough to say that the door is open. We must also take responsibility and support their path towards our union in any possible way.“ Strengthening the EU’s influence in the region is an opportunity to push back Russian and Chinese influence and act as a deterrent against possible plans to spark conflict in the region. 

The opening of accession negotiations did not come quickly, and some Member States still have doubts about Bosnia and Herzegovina’s ability to one day become a member of the European family. The European Union must consider the complicated path towards agreement between the country’s ethnic groups. For its part, Bosnia and Herzegovina must not feel that it is enough to follow instructions and needs to take the initiative for its membership in the EU. Support for EU accession among the citizens of BiH is growing, reaching around 85% (National Democratic Institute, 2021), which is a good signal and a strong mandate for politicians. At the same time, however, citizens are also fatigued, as the process takes a very long time, and the country will not achieve the desired goal. The country has a long way to go in meeting the criteria and reforms, and it is not an easy or quick process, but it is not impossible. The long-term vision of Bosnia and Herzegovina towards the European Union should be unchanging, regardless of the composition of the governments, so that the benefits of EU membership can be enjoyed by the population and the country itself as soon as possible. Momentum is now on BiH’s side, and it is up to it how to use it. Relations between BiH and the EU are moving to a new level, mainly because Bosnia and Herzegovina is practically knocking more and more firmly on the door of the European Union and wants to open it. However, the final step – crossing the threshold of the European door – needs internal unity and the will to take this step.