The Berlin Process 2024: the Western Balkans at the geopolitical crossroads between East and West



Kristína Piknová

The Berlin Process is a platform designed to support the Western Balkan countries in enhancing economic cooperation, deepening regional integration and fostering closer ties with the EU. Ultimately, the Berlin Process seeks to ensure that the WB6 countries will one day be ready for EU membership. 

The initiative to create the Berlin Process came from former German Chancellor Angela Merkel in August 2014, preceded by J.C. Juncker’s European Commission’s announcement to suspend EU enlargement for their tenure (2014 – 2019). It is chaired annually by the German government and viewed positively overall, as it is deepening progress on reforms. Over the years, the process has grown and expanded. It now has 10 partner countries: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom.

To achieve these broad goals, the Berlin Process has outlined specific objectives, including: 

  • Strengthen regional economic cooperation through the Common Regional Market;
  • Promote energy security and energy transition;
  • Implement the Green Agenda in  alignment with the EU’s  European Green Deal;
  • Foster a Regional Climate Partnership to support a Just and Green Transition;
  • Enhance regional connectivity through infrastructure projects in transportation, digitalisation, and communication;
  • Improve  cyber security collaboration;
  • Strengthen efforts to combat organised crime and  irregular migration;
  • Support reconciliation and societal exchanges within and between WB6 countries;
  • Advance social and economic inclusion, particularly for marginalised groups like the  Roma Stimulate business development through platforms like the annual  Business Forum and the Purchasing Initiative.
„Ultimately, the Berlin Process seeks to ensure that the WB6 countries will one day be ready for EU membership.“



Roundtable meeting, Berlin Process Summit 2024; Photo: European Union

Key achievements in the last 10 years of the Berlin Summit 



Over the past decade, the Berlin Process has achieved several notable milestones, directly contributing to its objectives. Key achievements include:   

  • The adoption of the Multi-annual Action Plan for a Regional Economic Area (MAP REA) in 2017 in Trieste, which facilitates the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour across the WB6 region. The MAP REA aims to make the WB6 region more attractive for investment, improving market integration.  

MAP REA) encompasses a range of measures such as regional highway and rail connections, as well as the development of digital infrastructure and enhanced regional connectivity, including unified spectrum rules (describes harmonised policies and regulations; not an official term) through the EU roaming-free area, improved cybersecurity, data security, and trust services, which MAP REA also eliminates barriers to students‘ movement, free movement of skilled workers, investments, goods, and services without needless restrictions like tariffs or quotas. These measures ale partially implemented in the WB6, but also exist on an EU level. 

The Regional Investment Reform Agenda (RIRA), which is also part of MAP REA,  seeks to improve entry and establishment chances for investors,  aims to facilitate the entry and operation of investors, harmonise investment policies between the WB6 and the EU and promote regional investment programmes. RIRA measures go beyond the WTO. 

Enhance regional investment retention mechanisms, create regional investment promotion programs, and improve business establishment policies and procedures by reciprocal acceptance of professional and academic credentials in relevant fields (dentists, doctors, architects). 

Positive opinions regarding digitalisation and the execution of MAP REA’s digital integration strategies are evident in the 2019 Balkan Barometer. As a result, the majority of businesses (58%) believe that digitalizing public services is the best way to increase the transparency and predictability of government actions; WB managers generally agree that digital skills are crucial for business conduct, particularly for exporters and large corporations; 50% of businesses offer their employees some kind of education and training on digital skills; and over 76% of citizens use the internet, while 45% of citizens express concerns about data security. 

The implementation of MAP REA has experienced many challenges. The ongoing bilateral disputes between Kosovo and Serbia and Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina reduced the regional capacity to implement specific measures, thus affecting the overall implementation. 

In addition to the regional challenges, countries in the region are also characterised by different performances in the implementation of the MAP REA. None of the WB6 countries has a fully functioning market economy, which has implications for the implementation of the trade, investment components, and digital integration. In addition, the performance and challenges in each region vary, as each country is at a different stage of the EU integration process, with some being further along than others. Serbia and Montenegro have advanced the farthest in the process of joining the European Union out of the six Western Balkan nations (WB6). Serbia has opened 22 of the 35 accession chapters since 2012, whilst Montenegro has opened 33 of them.

  • The signing of Mobility Agreements, during the 2022 Berlin summit, enabled freedom of movement with identity cards, and mutual recognition of higher education and professional qualifications for Doctors of Medicine, Dentists and Architects. 

Despite these achievements, it must be said, overall, little has been achieved concerning the original four objectives of the Berlin Process. Western Balkan societies, according to many observers mentioned in primary sources, are more divided than ever. There is very little regional economic cooperation. Since social inequality in the Western Balkans remains high and emigration is frequently seen as the only path to a respectable life for young people, the foundation for sustainable growth has, after all, scarcely been laid. Very little has been done to decarbonise, and the rising living expenses are expected to worsen the situation in the near future.



„Since social inequality in the Western Balkans remains high and emigration is frequently seen as the only path to a respectable life for young people, the foundation for sustainable growth has, after all, scarcely been laid.“
„The outcome of the Berlin Process in this context is that the participants stressed the crucial importance of the process in the context of geopolitical unpredictability and Russia’s aggressive campaign against Ukraine.“

The Berlin Process 2024: A Focus on  Democracy and Regional Challenges



As the Berlin Process marked its 10th anniversary in 2024,  the geopolitical and domestic contexts for both WB6 and the EU have significantly changed. While economic integration remains central, 2024’s summit also emphasized the critical issues of democracy, the rule of law, and countering external influences from Russia. Before the 2024 Summit, the  Civil Society Forum convened to address pressing concerns about governance in the WB6 countries.  Think Tanks urged leaders to adopt a resolution emphasizing the rule of law as a concern for EU accession reforms.  In this context, they urged governments of WB6 countries “to demonstrate a strong commitment to enforcing the rule of law standards as preconditions for the acceleration of the EU accession-related reforms, in line with the Fundamentals First EU enlargement principle.“ 

The participants noted the need to focus on expanding local ownership, improving monitoring, and increasing visibility through Civil Society Organizations-led communication, fostering bottom-up approaches and active participation of local actors. The points made in the Chair’s Conclusion confirm the commitment of the Berlin Process to strengthening democracy and building strong institutions through cooperation between parliaments, civil society and youth. 

​​Regarding this, it is crucial to note that there are already partnerships that support the Berlin Process’s goal of bolstering democracy and creating robust institutions via cooperation between parliaments, youth, and civil society. The Civil Society & Think Tank Forum (CSF) is one of them; it has been fundamental to the Berlin Process from the start. Through the CSF, the official side forum of the Berlin Process, civil society actors and media representatives from Germany and the EU engage with German and EU lawmakers, as do civil society representatives from the Western Balkan nations. This year’s CSF established seven theme working groups to work with civil society leaders to develop targeted recommendations. 

These groups covered a wide range of important topics, including energy, climate change, and decarbonization; dealing with the past and reconciliation; gender and diversity; the common regional market and mobility; environmental protection and sustainable economic development; disinformation and cyber threats; EU integration and the Berlin Process. All groups‘ discussions included cross-cutting subjects like youth, minorities, the rule of law, and local issues. Interestingly, the CSF was the first to integrate grassroots organizations from the Western Balkans and the EU in a special working group on diversity and gender.

The Youth Cooperation Office (RYCO), which was founded during the 2016 Paris Summit, is another project. The purpose of RYCO is to promote peace and cooperation among the local youth. The two main approaches to accomplish this are by introducing mobility and exchange programs and including youth in political decision-making processes. The platform also offers projects on having a productive conversation and accepting the past. There is a RYCO office in each Western Balkan capital. 

The Berlin Process Summit 2024 Chair’s Conclusions states: ,,The participants welcomed the recommendations from the Civil Society and Think Tank Forum and underlined the need for the role of civil society in building a strong democracy and prosperity in the Western Balkans.

The EU’s intention to integrate the six Western Balkan states was reaffirmed by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock at the Berlin Process foreign ministers‘ meeting even before the Berlin Process itself began. She said that EU member states had agreed that they did not want any grey areas in Europe that Russian President Vladimir Putin might perceive as his region of influence. The German foreign minister has described the enlargement of the EU to include the WB6 as a necessity.    Due in large part to Russia’s actions against Ukraine, the summit was held against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. Participants in the summit reiterated the Berlin Process’s pivotal role in fostering regional ties and advancing the Western Balkans‘ EU membership.

Concerns over Moscow’s influence in the Western Balkans have grown in the West since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Several European nations have expressed support for the region’s EU membership while cautioning against the possibility that Russia could destabilize the area as a result of the invasion. 

The outcome of the Berlin Process in this context is that the participants stressed the crucial importance of the process in the context of geopolitical unpredictability and Russia’s aggressive campaign against Ukraine. The Berlin Process catalyzes regional cooperation and an accelerator of the EU integration process due to its inclusive format that views all Western Balkan nations equally.



Family photo of the Conference; Photo: X / @ABaerbock

 Common Regional Market



The issues of democracy and security were not the only ones addressed in the Berlin Process. WB6 leaders signed a declaration of support for the 2025-2028 Regional Common Market Action Plan, which aims to promote economic cooperation and competitiveness. It focuses on the free movement of goods and services, human resources development, digital transformation and the modernisation of trade rules. To help foster this Action plan, the EU  also provides financial support in the estimated amount of 6,900,000 EUR, which will be implemented through grants by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit.  

Other topics included: bilateral issues and good neighbourly relations, which were the subject of a joint statement,  connectivity and transport, energy, climate policy and green agenda for the Western Balkans, food and agriculture, social policy, inclusion, gender and equality, migration, and agreement on higher education 



„WB6 leaders signed a declaration of support for the 2025-2028 Regional Common Market Action Plan, which aims to promote economic cooperation and competitiveness.“
„Also, the very term ‚Berlin Process‘ can be considered an unfortunate formulation, as the term gives the idea that Berlin’s interests take precedence over those of the Balkans.“

Criticism and Challenges of the Berlin Process





It is widely accepted that the Berlin Process is valued more globally for its ability to unite the divided Balkan nations and attempt to advance important accords and changes for the region’s nations. 

However, even a platform like the Berlin Process is not without its critics and the challenges it faces.  Stephen Doughty (UK Minister of State for Europe), in his speech at the latest edition of the Berlin Process, highlighted the challenges that the Berlin Process will have to address in the future. He emphasised that more jobs must be created for young people to curb the „brain drain“, which negatively impacts a country’s economy. He addressed the protection of women’s and girls‘ rights, which he sees as part of ensuring pluralistic democratic societies, which are an essential pillar in the creation of a more peaceful, stable and prosperous region. 

Another challenge for the region is the ageing population. The OECD warns that high international migration and low fertility will cause the number of working-age people to double by 2050. This prediction poses a challenge to securing living standards.

In addition to the ageing population, the OECD has also pointed to the declining trust of citizens in public institutions, with trends such as political instability, distrust in electoral processes, and party fragmentation contributing to this. If these trends persist, it is anticipated to further undermine public confidence in institutions, boost migration, impact the EU integration process, and degrade the quality of institutions, which may then impact the business environment, education, and other development-promoting sectors.  

We cannot miss recent political changes, like the rise of far-right movements in Europe and Donald Trump’s return to power in the USA, which could possibly impact the WB region in different ways, for example, in trade relations or environmental matters.  

The criticism of the Berlin Process lies mainly in the perception of the WB6 nations themselves, who consider the Berlin Process to have been imposed and that the Balkan countries were not sufficiently involved. Also, the very term „Berlin Process“ can be considered an unfortunate formulation, as the term gives the idea that Berlin’s interests take precedence over those of the Balkans. This suggests that in the future the perception of the Berlin Process itself among the citizens of the WB6 countries needs to be improved, so that the citizens of the WB6 are not seen only as external decision-makers.  



Conclusion

Looking ahead, the Berlin Process holds significant potential for advancing cooperation and integration. As European Commission President  Ursula von der Leyen remarked:  “Times of conflicts, wars and turmoil have brought new awareness inside the European Union. The awareness that a larger Union is also a stronger Union“. This is also demonstrated by the very concept of the Berlin Process, which prepares the WB6 countries to join the EU. 

Despite achievements, such as the  Mobility Agreements and the MAP REA, challenges persist. The WB6 region is increasingly a crossroads of competing influences from the  EU, China, Iran, Turkey and Russia. To ensure resilience, the Berlin Process must prioritize democratic reforms, institutional strength and tangible benefits for citizens. The renewed focus on regional ownership and the inclusion of civil society suggests that the process is evolving to meet these demands.  

In order to avoid the creation of „grey zones“ in Europe that Russia might view as its sphere of influence, the EU is dedicated to the integration of the Western Balkans. Russia’s involvement in the area is escalating geopolitical tensions and endangering the stability of the Balkans, especially given its political and cultural connections with some of these nations. To balance Russian influence and maintain regional stability, the EU must promote this integration.

Globally, the Berlin Process is perceived as a positive instrument that unites the divided countries of the Western Balkans and creates space for the creation of important reforms that prepare the WB6 countries for EU accession.  Nevertheless, the Berlin Process faces criticism and challenges, namely brain drain, ageing population, geopolitical changes, and a decline in trust in institutions. Going forward, the Berlin Process will face the challenge of changing its perception among WB6 citizens.

Kristína Piknová is an Intern at the Strategic Analysis  Young Leaders Programme

Disclaimer: Views presented here are those of the author solely and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Strategic Analysis


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„Globally, the Berlin Process is perceived as a positive instrument that unites the divided countries of the Western Balkans and creates space for the creation of important reforms that prepare the WB6 countries for EU accession. „

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