Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

First half of February 2025

Petra Bošková, Zuzana Šmilňáková, Anna Gúliková, Kristina Piknova, Kristína Šebová, Matúš Vicen,Lucia Jašková


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Albania
Mayor of Tirana Arrested on Charges of Corruption and Money-Laundering 

Erion Veliaj, the mayor of Tirana, was arrested on Monday, February 10, 2025, in his office. Albania’s Special Court Against Corruption and Organised Crime ordered the arrest of Veliaj on charges brought up by the Special Prosecution Office against Corruption and Organized Crime (SPAK),  which accused him of suspected passive corruption and money-laundering. His wife, Ajola Xoxa, was placed under house arrest on similar charges. Five more businessmen were put under the obligation of reporting to police regarding their whereabouts.

The prosecution alleges that Veliaj together with his wife, established a network of legal entities, such as non-profit organisations, limited liability companies and natural persons, to take the public money from the Tirana municipality’s treasury to fund their private assets and activities. For instance, the investigation alleges that the couple used public funds diverted from the treasury to the companies controlled by Xoxa and her affiliates to purchase a villa in the city of Qerret, acquire luxurious clothing and jewellery and gain 110 million leks on the side. Moreover, the prosecution alleges that the mayor was also engaged in the activities of “cleaning the proceeds of the criminal offense”.

Veliaj is one of the most prominent figures in the ruling Socialist Party of Albania led by Albania’s PM Edi Rama. He used to be considered a future leader of the party, however, he was a part of a few past scandals that severely harmed his image.

Amidst the news about Veliaj, the leader of Albania’s opposition Democratic Party and a former PM Sali Berisha, announced that the party hired Chris LaCivita, an adviser and co-campaign manager for US President Donald Trump, to lead its electoral campaign ahead of the May elections. LaCivita accused the current PM Edi Rama of being a puppet of George Soros at the press conference with Berisha.

Berisha is currently declared as persona non-grata in the United States because of the previous corruption charges, however, he claims that he will ask the new US administration under President Trump to lift the ban.



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Bosnia and Herzegovina
Corruption rating in Bosnia and Herzegovina reaching its lowest since 2012

As an EU candidate state, Bosnia and Herzegovina is supposed to take measures to implement rules according to the standards of the EU, while parliament should be able to ensure safe democratic elections and a sovereign political system. Bosnian corruption undermines such a process, and the institutions that need to supervise its prevention are failing to sustain their position within the European standard. Based on the data from the latest global Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) is BiH the worst-ranked among all Balkan countries, while in 2012, it was among the better-rated countries within the region. While the CPI is focused on the impact of corruption on the environment, it is apparent that systematic corruption problems are not being visibly addressed and concerning the CPI ranking of BiH, this state currently has the status of an undemocratic regime. Therefore, Sarajevo struggles to maintain some progress for the sake of integration into the EU.

The main reason behind the recent dip in the CPI was the collapse of the integrity of the electoral process itself and it was substantially swayed by stern allegations of electoral fraud. The election law, which was imposed prior based on the long-time effort of BiH to integrate itself into the Western structures, had no significance because the Central Election Commission established its irrelevance as a functional way to prevent the exploitation of public resources and different kinds of electoral and voting corruption.

Council of Europe’s Group of States against Corruption (GRECO) drew up a set of 25 recommendations, which, if implemented, are meant to improve the state of democracy and reduce the power of corruption within the system. The parliament of BiH is not imposing changes as effectively as it should and the European community is pushing for further progress over the next 18 months so that Sarajevo can withstand outer pressure from the EU. It is required for the candidate countries to overcome issues that are caused by undermining democracy, and in BiH, it is visible, in many cases, that the Government is being supported by actors who are trying to influence its politics for their gain. High corruption, therefore, directly affects the chances of negotiations between the EU and Sarajevo.



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Montenegro
Montenegro Joins Serbia in Wave of Protests

The protests are in response to the Cetinje massacre of January 1 2025, the deadliest mass shooting in the country’s history with 12 victims. It was the second such massacre in the town in less than three years. This tragedy highlighted Montenegro’s serious structural problems, such as lax regulation of gun ownership. To combat the proliferation of illegal firearms in the 620,000-person Balkan nation, Montenegrin authorities promptly introduced a new, stringent gun law along with other severe measures.

The thousands of Montenegrin students who are protesting see their battle as a component of a larger regional movement for accountability and justice. Where Tomorrow? (Kamo sjutra), an unofficial group of Montenegrin students said that it would block one road each day in protest because the Government had not complied with their demands over the mass shooting. According to the organisers, the roadblock is scheduled to start daily at 17:26, which is also the moment that police claim the shootings in Cetinje started.

Protesters outside the Interior Ministry building in the capital, Podgorica, chanted “Resignations” and “Killers,” calling for the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister for Security and Defense Aleksa Bečić and Interior Minister Danilo Šaranović. Both legislators insisted they didn’t feel accountable for the disaster and declined to step down. As these officials have not resigned, the students have called on Prime Minister Milojko Spajić to dismiss them.

A student-led organisation directed by Milo Perović told the crowd that innocent people had died under the ministers’ watch. “You failed to protect us, so resign!” Perović said. „We believe that our protests can change the situation in the security sector. We are here to fight until we achieve something,” Perovic told TV Vijesti, adding that the students will not give up. “If the demands are not met, we are ready for civil disobedience led by the students,” declared one of the protest participants, implying that if authorities continue to disregard the movement, the level of action could increase.

During the event in Cetinje, another protest organiser stated that they (protesters) came here looking for answers to several problems. Specifically, they want to know the answers to the questions: Why did a massacre happen in Cetinje for the second time? Why is no one responsible? Why is it so hard to resign?

Alongside the protests in Serbia, Montenegro joins the places where protests are taking place. The protests in Serbia are a follow-up to those that took place in November after a train station awning collapsed, killing fifteen people. The student protests — the largest in Serbia in decades — continue to mount a challenge to the country’s President Aleksandar Vučić.



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Kosovo
Vetevendosje party won again in Kosovo

On February 9, 2025, Kosovo citizens voted in parliamentary elections. Even though there was a delay in counting due to the failure of the Central Election Commission´s counting system, the results have clearly shown that the Vetevendosje party has won again in this parliamentary election. Vetevendosje party has been in power since 2021, and its leader, Albin Kurti, has been Prime Minister of Kosovo since then.

Although the Vetevendosje party has won, according to results, there is another problem for Kurti and his party and that is the missing majority. According to counted votes, Kurti´s leftist Self-Determination Movement Party has 42%, which means he does not have the majority needed to govern alone, leaving the door open to other parties if Vetevendosje fails to form a Cabinet.

Talking about other parties, the main challengers for Kurti are the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), with 22% of votes, whose leaders are accused of war crimes by the International Criminal Tribunal and the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) with 18% votes, which is the oldest party in the country.

“The people won. Vetevendosje! won. We are the winning subject who is to form the next Cabinet,” Kurti commented on the election result in front of journalists.

The Central Election Commission commented that voting ended by 7 pm. local time and the election was without any violation. Except delay in counting and an overloaded webpage, no bigger issues were going on, according to the Commission.

The biggest challenge for the old-new parliament will be ties with Serbia since Kurti has made many moves that raised tensions with Serbia, including the ban on the use of Serbian dinar as a currency in Kosovo. Also, the new Cabinet will face problems with EU funds since these have been suspended and will be returned only when Kosovo takes steps to de-escalate tensions in the North.

Sources:
  • Delauney G. & Wright G.Pristina.BBC. : “ Kosovo PM’s party leading but short of majority – partial results” https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c23ny33jlmjo

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Serbia
Serbia’s political crisis deepens: arrests, protests, and EU response amid ongoing corruption scandals

On the background of the student-led protests, Milorad Grcic, the former acting director of Serbia’s state energy company Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS), was arrested on February 12, 2025. Along with 14 others, he was charged with corruption and financial fraud in EPS. The Belgrade Higher Prosecution Office announced that there will be an investigation into their misuse of official positions and authority about public procurements for EPS. It is stated that the abuse led to EPS losing over a million EUR.

Milorad Grcic served as EPS’s acting director from March 2016 to January 2022. Before that, he was the director of Serbia’s largest mining site. Currently, he is the head of the Belgrade municipality of Obrenovac and a local official of Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party.

The arrest comes days after repeated promises by President Vucic to fight corruption aggressively, amid ongoing protests calling for accountability in the wake of the Novi Sad railway station disaster, resulting in 15 casualties.

Following two months of blockades and protests across Serbia, lawyers went on strike for a month in solidarity with anti-government demonstrations, causing the justice system to come to a standstill. Serbia’s Bar Association Assembly declared that for 30 days, lawyers will not be present in courtrooms, prosecutor’s offices, police stations, or any other administrative offices. They will not participate in investigations or negotiations related to criminal prosecution, nor will they engage with the police in pre-trial proceedings. After lawyers, actors joined the demonstrations, claiming that the show must not go on.

The student protesters have outlined four demands: the release of all documents related to the renovation of Novi Sad railway station, the prosecution of those responsible for attacking students during protests, an end to the prosecution of students arrested during the protests, and a 20% increase in the higher education budget.

The political crisis in Serbia has reached the European Parliament, which held a plenary debate earlier in February discussing possible reaction from the EU. Poland’s Foreign Minister Adam Szłapka supported citizens’ right to demonstrate and emphasise the European support for Serbia’s European path, focusing on the rule of law and human rights. Marta Kos, European Commissioner for Enlargement, condemned violence against protesters and called for accountability. MEPs expressed solidarity with Serbian demonstrators, advocating for transparency, electoral reform, and media freedom. On the Corruption Perception Index 2024, Serbia scored 35 points out of 100, being ranked 105th out of 180 countries.

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North Macedonia
Corruption charges on the highest levels of former government and worsening perception of corruption index

The former head of service for general and common affairs serving in the previous Government has been ordered to detention for 30 days to prevent escape or obstruction of the investigation. Pece Mirceski, who was directly appointed by the Government, has been pressed with charges of corruption while in office during the last Government. According to the financial police, he was involved in economic fraud in the period between 2021 and 2024, when active in service of the Government. He and other involved individuals should have embezzled tens of thousands of EUR on fake services of government vehicles. There are also other suspicions of embezzlement of public resources during the official foreign visits.

Mirceski’s case is rather a minor corruption scandal compared to the serious case of state money embezzlement, government-judicial bribes, etc., which involved the former Prime Minister, first deputy Prime Minister, and other government officials from the same government period. They all are accused of corruption and abuse of official position and authority. The Former Prime Minister, other officials and their families have been also blacklisted by the US State Department.

These scandals of the last Government are being revealed in the situation where only 17% of the North Macedonian citizens, to some extent, trust the judiciary system and where North Macedonia is stagnating or even experiencing a slight downward in international reports on corruption. Namely, Freedom House and Transparency International are not showing a positive trend in the fight against corruption and the perception of corruption in the country by the people. North Macedonia has been experiencing in the last five years a slight improvement in the perception of corruption, but from a wider range, it doesn’t represent any significant improvements. Freedom House also, in its latest report in 2024, identified corruption as one of the obstacles to exercising policy-making powers fully and freely. The Freedom House score regarding corruption dropped from 3 to 2 out of 4, mainly for opacity surrounding major infrastructure projects and the reduction of penalties for corruption-related offences. Recently, on February 13, the constitutional court ordered parliament to correct the passed legislation by the last Government that reduced sentences for abuse of office and corruption.

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