Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

Review of December 2024

Petra Bošková, Kristína Piknová, Kristína Šebová, Simona Škríbová, Vanesa Opšenáková, Dominik Boris 


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Albania
Political tensions 5 months ahead of the Albanian elections

The political tensions ahead of the elections are mainly manifested in the relations between the opposition, led by the conservative Democratic Party, which, among other things, accuses the ruling Socialists, led by Edi Rama, of corruption and manipulation of the previous elections.

Most recently, the opposition accused the ruling Socialist Party of not allowing a review of the mandate of former Foreign Minister Olta Xhacka, whom the opposition accuses of abuse of office.

Olta Xhacka is accused of misusing a function to rent a beach in southern Albania to her then-husband. The opposition refers to the constitution and the ban written in it on politicians and their family members acquiring public property. The opposition has sought to declare Xhack’s mandate invalid, while the ruling Socialist Party blocked an attempt to have her mandate reviewed by the Constitutional Court in the second half of this year. The opposition is also referring to a 15-page opinion by the so-called Venice Commission, an advisory body to the Council of Europe. According to the Venice Commission, “all authorities are bound to comply with these decisions and to effectively implement them.” The court’s rulings are legally binding.

Despite this, the ruling majority has repeatedly blocked their implementation, which, according to the opposition, shows an undermining of the rule of law and an attempt to shield MPs from scrutiny.

In the context of the pre-election tensions, the news of the acquittal of Sali Berisha, the former Albanian Prime Minister and leader of the Democratic Party, who was under house arrest on suspicion of corruption, cannot be overlooked. Following his release, Berisha called on Edi Rama to form a transitional „technical government“ to lead the country to elections.

Parliamentary elections will be held in Albania on May 11, 2025. These elections are also a breakthrough for Albanians living abroad, as they will be able to vote for the first time.



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Bosnia and Herzegovina
No update for Dayton in Sight

December 14 marks the 29th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Agreement.

The Dayton Peace Agreement ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1995, where at least 100,000 people were killed, and since then, this milestone has been core for lasting yet fragile peace in the country.

Back then, “Dayton” was seen as a huge relief for every party involved, but the times have changed, and many are calling for change, or better to say, an upgrade for this Agreement, called Dayton 2.0. It has fulfilled its primary function but still has many deficiencies which have been part of the disputes for many years now.

One of the deficiencies that is still more and more discussed is the current political system in the country, which is based on multiple levels and structures, and for critics, the country has far too many officials and politicians. The higher the number of politicians, the more fragmented the power and also the political and legal responsibility. This can cause issues in times of crisis and challenges.

Politicians are still calling for a reform in Dayton’s legal framework, as it does not reflect the current evolution of the country and, therefore could be considered as “expired”. Many are unsatisfied with the territorial division anchored in Dayton or with the electoral system, but none has aimed for any wider updates of the Dayton, so the hopes for minor and major updates are slowly fading away every year with every reached anniversary.



Sources:
  • Karcic H. Balkan Insight. Sarajevo. “Hopes of Updating Bosnia’s Dayton Peace Deal Have Faded”.https://balkaninsight.com/2024/12/13/hopes-of-updating-bosnias-dayton-peace-deal- have-faded/
  • Ozdemir I. AA. Sarajevo. “Bosnia remains divided 29 years after Dayton Peace Agreement”.https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/bosnia-remains-divided-29-years-after-dayton-peac e-agreement/3399538

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Kosovo
New Allegations Against Former Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi Amid Ongoing War Crime Case

Former President of Kosovo and prominent figure of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) Hashim Thaçi faces new charges from the Specialist Prosecutor’s Office (SPO). These include three counts of obstruction of justice, four counts of violating trial secrecy, and four counts of contempt of court. The charges come from allegedly influencing witnesses and interfering with trials related to his ongoing war crimes case.

Along with Thaçi, three others were arrested – Bashkim Smakaj, former head of the Kosovo Intelligence Agency, Fadil Fazliu and Isni Kilaj, former mayor of Malishevo, for “attempted obstruction of official persons in performing official duties and contempt of court”. Among the accused in the case is also Hajredin Kuci, former justice minister and former deputy prime minister of Kosovo. The individuals were supposed to collaborate with Thaçi to influence witness statements and distort the investigation. So far, two other defendants, Smakaj and Kilaj, have denied guilt.

“I see this indictment as a violation of my dignity, humanity and professional reputation,” Kuci told the court. He described the charges as “one of the darkest moments for me as a person of justice, which has been my profession and mission for the whole of my life”.

According to the SPO, the obstruction of justice occurred between April and November 2023. During this time, Thaçi allegedly shared confidential information with other defendants and coordinated three groups to influence his ongoing investigation.

The case once again highlights the disputes surrounding the Kosovo Specialised Court, which was set up to investigate war crimes by KLA members. The court is based in The Hague to protect witnesses from the intimidation that has occurred in Kosovo-related trials in the past. Thaçi, together with three other individuals, is accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly committed during the 1998-1999 Kosovo war, including persecution, torture and murder. He denies all of the charges.

In the context of the case, the new allegations only add to the growing divide of the public. Many still see Thaçi as a symbol of the struggle for Kosovo’s independence; others, including the international community, have repeatedly stressed the importance of investigating the serious allegations brought against him. Therefore, the war crime trial continues under considerable public and media interest, and the new allegations may only further complicate its course.



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Montenegro
Montenegrin Volunteers and the Unresolved War Crimes of the 1990s

Throughout the 1990s, the wars in the Balkans saw the rise of so-called “weekend warriors”—volunteer fighters from Montenegro and elsewhere who sporadically entered conflict zones. Despite substantial evidence implicating them in heinous crimes, accountability remains elusive for most.

One particularly harrowing case occurred in May 1992 in Foca, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Armed men, including Montenegrin fighters, entered a high school where Bosniak women were detained. A former student, later identified as Witness 50, testified about being raped by one of these men, who verbally abused her with anti-Muslim slurs before the attack.

The perpetrator was part of a unit led by Dragoljub Kunarac, a Montenegrin commander who was sentenced to 28 years in prison by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY). His unit’s crimes, including rape and enslavement, were well-documented. ICTY records mention multiple Montenegrin soldiers involved in atrocities in Foca, yet most of them have evaded justice.

Rights groups highlight Montenegro’s reluctance to prosecute these crimes. Since 2020, the Special State Prosecutor’s Office has investigated over a dozen cases involving Montenegrin nationals suspected of murder, torture, and sexual violence. However, progress has been slow, with only three indictments filed to date.

One such indictment led to the conviction of Vlado Zmajevic, a former Yugoslav Army soldier, who received a 14-year prison sentence for killing four civilians in Kosovo. Other cases, such as that of border officer Zoran Gasovic, are still pending, while suspects like Ranko Radulovic, accused of rape and other crimes in Foca, remain at large.

The term “weekend warriors” aptly describes these individuals, who joined the wars not as regular soldiers but as opportunists. Some fought for nationalist causes, while others sought personal gain through looting and violence. Despite their documented crimes, justice has been slow, leaving a dark chapter in Montenegro’s history unresolved.

Montenegro’s role in the wars of the 1990s, both as part of Yugoslavia and through the actions of its citizens, underscores the lingering need for accountability and reconciliation in the region.

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Serbia
President Vučić On An Oficial Visit In Germany  

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić pays an official visit to Germany on December 10 2024. In President Vučić’s delegation, the Serbian delegation included the Minister of Mining and Energy, Dubravka Đedović Handanović, and the Minister of Environmental Protection, Irena Vujović.

In Dresden, Germany, President Vučić met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, with whom he visited the German state of Saxony. In Freiburg, they met with representatives of the Saxon Mining Authority. They attended a presentation on environmentally friendly methods of extracting lithium, a key resource for the production of batteries for electric cars. The meeting was a follow-up meeting between Serbian and German political representatives after they met in Belgrade (Serbia) in July this year. During this meeting, an agreement between Serbia and the European Union was signed on the supply of lithium from Serbia to the European Union, which was later met with opposition in Serbian society due to the high environmental impact.

Chancellor Scholz said that the main points of the meeting were the discussion on the sustainable mining of lithium as well as other critical raw materials. “If the switch to e-mobility is to succeed, there must also be enough lithium for our industry,” Scholz said during a visit to Freiburg. “We need this and other critical raw materials – both through reliable and diversified supply chains and through promoting domestic mining.” He also mentioned that demand for lithium will be strong in Europe, and it is therefore important to get as many regional projects off the ground as possible. He added that “citizens often view such projects with concern regarding environmental impact,” saying that sustainability and environmental protection must be a priority. President Vučić told of the meeting, “What is done in Zinnwald can also be applied in Jadar.” The Jadar region in Serbia has the largest lithium reserves in Europe. However, facing environmental concerns has led the Serbian government to seek solutions that minimise the negative impact on nature and local communities”.

In addition to the issue of lithium mining, President Vučić and Chancellor Scholz discussed topical issues in Serbia during the meeting, such as its continued integration into the European Union and Serbian-Kosovo relations.

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North Macedonia
Political Tensions Emerge Over Language Law in North Macedonia

On December 11, the Constitutional Court of North Macedonia announced that the decision on the Language Law (2018), which made Albanian the official language of the country, would be postponed. The law entered into force in 2019 and has since faced significant criticism, including from the current ruling party, VMRO DPMNE. In practice, it is seen as the last legislative measure resulting from the Ohrid Agreement (2001), which granted broader rights to Albanians in North Macedonia in several areas.

Before the introduction of the Language Law (2018), Albanian was granted official status only in areas where the minority exceeded more than 20% of the local population. This situation thus highlights once again the relative difficulty of maintaining ethnic harmony, given that Albanians make up approximately 25% of the population. The warning about the possible destabilisation of the country as a result of the repeal of the law came from its main supporter, the DUI party, which organised protests in front of the Constitutional Court in Skopje to mark the occasion. Bujar Osmani, DUI’s deputy chairman, stressed the possible multi-ethnic consequences of the court’s decision and also actively criticised the absence of ethnic minority judges during the court session, which he said was the reason why the decision was made. DUI also argues that the repeal of this law may undo all the progress made since the Ohrid Agreement.

The ruling party, VMRO DPMNE, in turn, points out that the law unjustifiably favours one minority over others, given that it does not make provisions for other minority languages such as Turkish, Roma or Serbian, which means that Albanians are heavily favoured over others in this context. At the same time, Hristijan Mickoski, the Prime Minister of North Macedonia, accused the DUI of exploiting ethnic tensions for political purposes and described their protests as an attempt to divide public opinion.

Darko Kostadinovski, president of the Constitutional Court, said that a final decision on the issue could take up to three months and that it is important to draw attention in particular to external expertise, while the law had already been criticised in the past, for example by the Venice Commission.



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