Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

Second half of October 2024

Petra Bošková,  Dominik Boris, Vanesa Opšenáková, Anna Gúliková, Kristina Piknová, Matt Vicen, Kristína Šebová

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Albania
Albanian Opposition Weakened by Leader Arrests Ahead of May’s Parliamentary Elections

On October 25, 2024, leading Albanian opposition politicians Ilir Meta and Sali Berisha were arrested just months before the expected parliamentary elections.

Ilir Meta, leader of the Freedom Party, was detained by the Special Anti-Corruption Structure (SPAK) on October 21 for alleged fraud and possible financial ties to influential businessmen. According to the allegations, Meta is allegedly involved in several corruption cases, in particular, a controversial contract (2009) between the Czech energy company ČEZ and the Albanian agency DIA, which was supposed to collect unpaid consumer debts, has been actively mentioned in the media, but at the same time, accusations have also been made over suspicious bank transactions that allegedly helped Meta and his relatives to accumulate assets, which were not listed in his official financial declarations.

A few days before Meta’s arrest, Sali Berisha, the chairman of the Democratic Party, was accused of enriching himself through the misuse of public funds while he was in office. The SPAK, in his case, focused in particular on several large infrastructure projects that were approved during his tenure, where it was suspected that they were approved under unfavourable terms with possible financial manipulations to the detriment of the state.

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and his party’s support remains strong at the moment while rejecting that the detention of opposition leaders was politically motivated and the party has said it supports SPAK’s strong anti-corruption stance. However, opposition MPs see the arrests as a possible tool to remove opposition leaders and thus weaken the opposition as a whole ahead of the upcoming elections. Berisha himself has described SPAK as a politically manipulated body whose function is to serve the government’s interests.

These arrests are likely to significantly impact the opposition’s ability to reach out to voters ahead of the elections, given that the arrested leaders are prominent figures on Albania’s opposition scene.

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Bosnia and Herzegovina
European Commission President Von Der Leyen In Bosnia And Herzegovina   

The President of the European Commission (EC), Ursula von der Leyen, visited Bosnia and Herzegovina from 24 to October 25 2024. President von der Leyen’s visit took place as part of her four-day tour of the Western Balkans, with the primary objective of communicating the progress of the region’s countries’ possible accession to the European Union (EU).

During her first day in Bosnia and Herzegovina, President von der Leyen visited the Srednjobosanski i Hercegova-Neretva region, which was hit by unprecedented floods in early October. During her visit to the village of Donja Jablanica, which was additionally affected by the floods, the EC President said: “We will be your friends and partners. You saw that the civil protection mechanism was immediately activated, and it was gratifying to see people and volunteers from different countries helping the affected areas. Be sure Europe is with you”. On the second day of her visit, President von der Leyen moved on to Sarajevo, where she met with members of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina. This was followed by a meeting with the President of the Council of Ministers, Borjana Krišto. At a joint press conference, President von der Leyen supported the country in the trend of reforms that could lead to membership in the European Union. “We share the same vision of the future. A future in which Bosnia and Herzegovina is a full member of the European Union. We will continue to work towards this. We have come a long way, we still have a long way to go, but I am confident that you will succeed,” von der Leyen said. She also urged the need for cooperation within the country if Bosnia and Herzegovina wants to join the EU. President von der Leyen also noted that the enlargement of the European Union would be a top priority during her second term as President of the EC. During a press conference with President Kristo, EC President von der Leyen also announced €20 million in support for flood relief.

Apart from Bosnia and Herzegovina, the President of the European Commission visited Albania, North Macedonia, Serbia, Kosovo and Montenegro.

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Montenegro
War crimes defendant set free after three years under the indictment

Montenegrin man Slobodan Peković, who was first arrested in October 2021, had his detention lifted as three years have passed since his indictment with no first-instance verdict so far. Peković fought for the Bosnian Serb forces during the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the years 1992 and 1995. This was during the wave of ethnic cleansing that struck eastern parts of BIH at the beginning of the war. He has been charged with the murder of two Bosnian civilians and a rape while fighting in the army.

According to International Criminal Court (ICC), under Article 8, Peković has therefore committed a war crime of rape and a war crime of attacking civilians. Although, based on the fact that the hearings have been postponed three times due to Peković’s lawyer’s health, which could also be a defence strategy, now the defendant must be released. The Higher Court in Podgorica has terminated his custody, but Peković was ordered to report periodically, and his travel documents have been temporarily confiscated. While presenting his defence, he pleaded not guilty in both killing those civilians and raping a woman who is today in a witness protection program.

However, this trial could send a positive message as well. It shows that the Montenegrin judicial system puts some effort into the way it handles its own citizens who committed war crimes and works through the documentation even after the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia. This proceeding might also encourage other victims of similar crimes to follow up to try and get a chance to tell their own stories. And last but not least, the rape charge marks a landmark moment in Montenegro’s reckoning with its role in the Yugoslav war itself and, therefore, potentially heightens chances for future assession negotiations with the EU.

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Kosovo
Citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina will soon be able to enter Kosovo only with an ID card

During the Berlin process summit,which was held on October 14, the Kosovo government announced the unilateral lifting of the visa regime for citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina will need an ID card when entering Kosovo. This decision is to be implemented from January 1, 2025 on. President of the Serb-led Bosnian entity, Milorad Dodik, stated that Bosnia and Herzegovina will not accept the entry of Kosovo citizens with just ID cards.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, like Serbia, does not officially recognize Kosovo as a separate and independent state. Unlike other countries of the former Yugoslavia that have recognized Kosovo (e.g. Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro and North Macedonia), Bosnia has not granted this recognition for political reasons. Citizens of North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro and Serbia travel only with identity cards. Although Bosnia and Herzegovina does not recognize Kosovo as a state, it has recognized Kosovo passports since 2012. This practical decision means that Kosovo residents can travel to Bosnia and Herzegovina with a Kosovo passport, even if Bosnia and Herzegovina does not formally recognize their country. Kosovo introduced visas for citizens of BIH in 2014, while Kosovo citizens have needed visas to enter Bosnia and Herzegovina since Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008.

On the decision to unilaterally abolish the visa regime, Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti said: “While the [Serb-dominated] Republika Srpska entity refuses ratification of the mobility agreement for free movement with IDs, which my country was the first in the region to ratify in parliament, I have decided to end the wait.“ With this statement, Kurti was referring to an agreement between the two countries, which was signed in the framework of the Berlin process in 2022. The agreement would allow citizens to cross the borders with ID cards only. Despite the agreement between the two countries, neither Bosnians nor Kosovars could travel freely between Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina because the agreement was not supported by all ethnic groups in the Bosnian Presidency and was effectively blocked by the Republika Srpska, led by Milorad Dodik, who was sanctioned by the US. However, Dodik declared in 2023 that Republika Srpska ‘will not allow any progress to be made on this issue’. That same year, the agreement was ratified by Serbia.

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Serbia
Serbia discussing new long-term gas contract with Russia

Serbia has had a bilateral long-term agreement with Gazprom about natural gas supplies from 2021. This agreement ended in May 2022, and after a while, the new agreement was closed between the Russian Federation and Serbia. This will last until March 2025.

 On October 20, the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, had a phone call with Vladimir Putin, as the Radio and Television of Serbia has informed. It was the first call between these two presidents after two years.

Vučić has described the call as good, open and full of meaningful conversations and posted it in the video on his Instagram official profile. This call was supposed to be on behalf of the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Belgrade from fascism. This has not been the only topic of the call between the two presidents. They should have discussed multiple bilateral agreements, and one of them is supposed to be a new long-term gas contract.

 Vučić declared that Gazprom will provide 6 million cubic meters per day for this winter, and another additional 2 million will be provided for oil company NIS, which is owned by Gazprom and Gazprom Naft. Although the European Union puts Serbia under pressure because of Russian aggression in Ukraine, Vučić described the new contract in discussion as worthy because of the “very good” prices. He added that he thanked Putin for providing natural gas supplies this winter. He also confirmed he won’t participate in the BRICS Summit in Kazan hosted by Putin, but the Serbian delegation will. This delegation will be composed of 4 government ministers, two of them are US-sanctioned officials, Minister Nenad Popovic and Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin.

It is well known that Serbia has not only a contract with the Russian Federation but also with Azerbaijan. The contract between Serbian Srbijagas and Azerbaijan´s SOCAR was closed in September this year and will come into force in November this year. This contract will last until April 2025. In these six months, Baku will provide Serbia with an extra million cubic meters of gas. Although Serbia tries to diversify its gas resources, the amount of gas provided by Azerbaijan will cover only 15% of its needs.

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North Macedonia
Railway dispute as another point of contention in North Macedonia-Bulgaria relations over EU membership

North Macedonia’s bid for the European Union hit another obstacle, another one connected with Bulgaria. In the first half of this year, the two countries got into another dispute, this time over a railway, which is part of the connectivity plans, such as Corridor 8 under the TENT-T regulation, or NATO’s strategic mobility corridor. The railway is a part of a crucial connection plan from the Adriatic coast in Italy all the way to the Bulgarian sea port of Varna. This connectivity plan was signed at the Washington DC NATO summit between Italy, Albania, North Macedonia and Bulgaria.

This friction started after the newly elected populist North Macedonian government criticized the Bulgarian side for not advancing in the construction of the corridor at the cross-border section. Macedonian minister of transportation threatened to redirect EU funds designed for constructing Corridor 8 to Corridor 10, which runs to the North through Serbia to the European Union. EU immediately responded that such action would not be acceptable. European officials also stepped in and arranged a meeting on October 16, where both sides on the ministerial level, alongside the European Commission and investment partners like EIB and EBRD, met and discussed the dispute and further cooperation. They agreed to continue in cooperation by holding regular high-level dialogue and by establishing a joint working group for Corridor 8.

This dispute is just the latest in a series of disputes that have engulfed Northern Macedonia for the last almost 20 years. After being granted candidate status, Greece was the first to block the accession process because of a dispute over the name Macedonia. Subsequently, Bulgaria made demands marked by the identity and recognition of the Bulgarian minority in Northern Macedonia. On top of all these issues slowing Macedonia’s accession process, the European Commission has decided to give Albania the green light to open the first negotiating chapters in the EU accession process, whereas, for a long time, the two countries have been seen as one block in the accession process. All this further complicates and slows down the accession process, but despite this European Commission remains positive with its Growth plan for the Western Balkans.

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