Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

Second half of September 2024

Petra Bošková, Kristína Šebová, Vanesa Opšenáková, Simona Škríbová, Kristína Piknová, Zuzana Šmilňáková 


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Albania
Albania Implements Law Requiring Medical Graduates to Work Locally or Repay Tuition Fees

On September 20, Albania’s parliament passed a new law aimed at reducing the emigration of medical graduates. The law requires medical students from public universities to work in Albania for at least three years after graduation. If they fail to do so, they will be required to repay the full cost of their tuition, with the exact amount to be determined in October.

Once students sign the contract, the Ministry of Health is obligated to provide them with a job within three months.

Rigels Xhemollari, an education expert and head of the NGO Civic Resistance, criticised the law, arguing that instead of “trapping” medical graduates, the government should focus on improving the health sector. He believes the state should create better conditions to retain doctors by investing more in the sector, ensuring that doctors are motivated rather than forced to stay.

Originally, the law proposed that students work in Albania for five years, but after protests and a ruling from the Constitutional Court in January, the period was reduced to three years. In June, students escalated their case to the European Court of Human Rights, though no ruling has been made yet.

The government’s goal is to stop the significant emigration of medical professionals, particularly to Europe, following their graduation. Data from the Albanian Medical Federation reveals that around 3,000 doctors left the country over the past decade. With a population of 2.4 million, the country faces a significant healthcare workforce challenge.



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Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina buys Bayraktars from Turkey

In July this year, Zukan Helez, Defence Minister in Bosnia and Herzegovina, posted on his Facebook profile picture with a drone flying above him and description: “The best penicillin for ‘disunity’. And it’s homemade. May our homeland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, shine forever.” By disunity, he most probably meant the long-lasting separatist tendencies of the leader of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik.

On September 16, September the Defence Minister started negotiations about the purchase of the Bayraktars TB2 with Turkish company Baykar. The company is owned by Erdogan’s son-in-law, Selcuk Bayraktar, and a piece of these drones cost an estimated 5 million dollars (including ground equipment). Bayraktar drones have already been exported to more than 20 countries and used in war zones in Ukraine, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh. The subject of this purchase should not be only drones but also command systems and training for military pilots.

On September 25, the investigative portal BIRN confirmed that Bosnia and Herzegovina had bought six of the Bayraktars along with military training for pilots in Turkey and defence hardware. This purchase was already pre-signed in 2020 when Turkey promised BIH to provide defence hardware, military aid and training of military personnel.

BIRN has been told that BIH will purchase Bayraktars for half its price as Turkey should see Bosnia and Herzegovina as its “natural hinterland”, according to Yildirim, the Turkish politician.

Along with this purchase, Bosnia and Herzegovina started with the development of its drones. One of three companies should be developing so-called “kamikaze” drones, and the other two are currently working on renaissance drones and fixed-wing bombers. Nowadays it is still unknown if these private companies are doing so with or without permission from the Ministry of Defence. Information is diversifying from source to source.

In addition, Helez is currently also negotiating with a Swedish company about opening a company for drone production.



Sources:
  • Kurtic, Azem & Byuk Firnt Hamdi. Balkan Insight.Sarajevo: “Half- Price Bayraktars: Bosnia Buys Turkish Drones, Eyes Own Production. “ https://balkaninsight.com/2024/09/25/half-price-bayraktars-bosnia-buys-turkish-drone s-eyes-own-production/
  • Defence Industry Europe collective. Defence Industry Europe: “Bosnia and Herzegovina in talks to acquire Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkey” https://defence-industry.eu/bosnia-and-herzegovina-in-talks-to-acquire-bayraktar-tb2- drones-from-turkey/

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Montenegro
Mandić’s Plan for Dual Citizenship 

Already during last year’s political campaign, the leader of the New Serbian Democracy, Andrija Mandić, demonstrated the initiative for the possibility of dual citizenship, pointing out that those who are active members of the Serbian minority should have the right to citizenship of both countries. Mandić emphasised at the time that this step, together with the new population census, would help improve relations in Montenegro and provide a more accurate overview of the ethnic divisions in the country. According to 2023 data, 28% of Montenegrin citizens claim to belong to the Serb minority.

MPs from the Democratic Party of Socialists criticise the possibility of dual citizenship, arguing that it could just bring more destabilisation in the region and strengthen Serbian nationalism. They consider this initiative to be the pursuit of Mandić’s personal interest, given that he claims Serbian nationality and has dual citizenship.

In July 2024, Mandić asked the Research Centre of Assembly for an analysis that was to serve as a basis for a proposal on dual citizenship, which was later submitted by the pro-Serb bloc to the Prime Minister in the form of a request to amend the Law on Montenegrin Citizenship. In practice, this means specifically opening up the possibility of introducing dual citizenship with Serbia. However, in the words of the Spajić cabinet, changes in the law on Montenegrin citizenship can only be introduced after the legal mechanisms for their protection are in place, so in order to implement them, the constitution will first need to be amended.

It is possible that in the foreseeable future, Mandić will also ask for an amendment to the law on Montenegrin statehood, a plan for such an initiative having been announced as early as the end of 2023. This law (2008) allows dual citizenship only for those who acquired it before Montenegro’s independence or as part of a bilateral agreement, which Montenegro does not currently have with Serbia.



 

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Kosovo
Kosovo-Serbia Relations Strained as Banjska Trial is Postponed

The trial for the September 2023 Banjska attack in Kosovo, which claimed the life of a police sergeant, Afrim Bunjaku, has been rescheduled to October 9, 2024. After defence attorneys highlighted the lack of Serbian-language indictments for their clients, the Pristina Basic Court Judge postponed the hearings.

On September 11, the Special Prosecution of Kosovo accused Milan Radoičić and 42 other people of terrorism and threatening the nation’s constitutional order. Radoičić, along with his business partner Radule Stević and his company, RAD DOO, have also been charged with money laundering.

According to the indictment, Radoičić has been sponsoring the criminal acts of a “structured terrorist group”since 2017. This included the acquisition of heavy weaponry with the goal of “separating” Kosovo’s four northern Serb-majority towns from the rest of the country “to join them with the Republic of Serbia”.

Since the incident, the Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti persisted that “Serbia is responsible” for the attack. According to Kurti, Radoičić met with Serbia’s Security and Information Agency (BIA) several times during the previous year. Radoičić, on the other hand, admitted to directing the assault but insisted on doing so without telling Belgrade authorities. Serbian President Alexander Vučić denied the country’s involvement in the attack.

Three defendants – Vladimir Tolić, Blagoje Spasojević and Dušan Maksimović – were present in court, but their case has been separated from the main trial. The Kosovo Supreme Court is deliberating on whether to try Kosovo Serb leader Milan Radoičić and 42 other defendants in absentia. Judge Arben Hoti said that the answer to whether the two cases will be merged again remains unknown.

On September 24, 2024, marking the attack’s anniversary, Kosovo officials renamed a road to Banjska after Sergeant Bunjaku, with Prime Minister Albin Kurti describing the incident as an assault on Kosovo’s sovereignty, state integrity, peace and security.

US and EU representatives, including the EU High Representative Josep Borrell, urged swift prosecution of those responsible for the attack.



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Photo: Shutterstock.com

Serbia
Serbia Signs a Deal for Gas Supplies with Azerbaijan 

On September 26, Serbia’s Minister of Mining and Energy, Dubravka Đedović Handanović, signed a new energy deal with the Minister of Energy of Azerbaijan, Parviz Shabkaz. The contract should secure Serbia a delivery of an extra one million cubic metres of gas from Azerbaijan from November 2024 until April 2025. Furthermore, the two ministers signed a Memorandum of understanding on green energy cooperation.

Serbia has been trying to lower its reliance on Russia as its gas supplier for a long time. In recent decades, Serbia has depended solely on gas supplies from the Russian Gazprom. Then, in 2023, Serbia opened an interconnector pipeline to Bulgaria, which supplies Bulgaria with gas from Azerbaijan via the LNG terminal in the Greek port of Alexandroupolis. Following the pipeline’s opening, Serbia signed a deal with Azerbaijan for 400 million cubic metres of gas annually from 2024 until 2026. According to the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network, this amount represented roughly 15 per cent of Serbia’s yearly energy needs at the time of the signing. This amount has been expanded by an additional one million cubic metres for the upcoming winter. According to the ministers, when the deal expires in 2026, it might be increased up to one billion cubic metres.

Apart from the gas supplies, the ministers also discussed the possibility of Serbia joining the Green Energy Corridor Project, a cooperation between Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania and Hungary. The participating countries plan to build a high-voltage electricity cable under the Black Sea to transport green energy from Azerbaijan to Central and Eastern Europe. Bulgaria is also in the talks about the project. Moreover, both parties discussed the upcoming UN conference on climate change (COP29), which Azerbaijan will organise in November.

Gazprom’s contract with Serbia expired in 2021 and was renewed for three more years in 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a meeting with one of Serbia’s deputy prime ministers, Aleksandar Vulin, in September 2024, said that “Russia plays a crucial role in supplying Serbia with energy resources, doing so efficiently and at a high level, always in a timely manner and on favourable terms for Serbia”. However, he added, “There are specific issues we must address in this regard. For example, I am referring to the fact that our gas supply deals are set to expire in March 2025.”



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North Macedonia
North Macedonia and Albania’s paths to the EU are dividing

At the end of September, it was reported that Albania would open its first negotiating cluster on October 15, while North Macedonia, which started accession negotiations with Albania at the same time, would not open its cluster. North Macedonia has been a candidate country since 2005, while Albania since 2014. This is reportedly due to a bilateral dispute with EU member Bulgaria.

The problem between Bulgaria and North Macedonia dates back to 2020 when Bulgaria blocked Macedonia from starting EU accession negotiations. Bulgaria insisted that Northern Macedonia recognise the Bulgarian origin of its identity and language, which Northern Macedonia saw as a derogatory demand.

During the French presidency in July 2022, the countries agreed that North Macedonia would amend its constitution to include the Bulgarian minority with the other minorities currently referred to as “the Turkish people, the Vlach people, the Serbian people, the Romany people, the Bosniak people and others”. This constitutional change would have stopped the Bulgarian veto, and North Macedonia’s path to the EU would have continued. This agreement is also known as the French proposal.

Since June 2024, the new Prime Minister, Hrisrijan Mickoski, has been at the helm of the state with a far-right government that has no interest in changing the constitutional preamble and including Bulgarians among the founding peoples of the state. Mickoski’s government has no plans to do so until conditions are more favourable. The nationalist VMRO-DPMNE party won the parliamentary elections in May 2024, and the new government of Hristijan Mickoski has made it clear that it wants to renegotiate the French proposal.

Hristijan Mickoski, the Prime Minister of Northern Macedonia, commented on the situation after the meeting of the leaders of the Western Balkans, which was devoted primarily to the European Growth Plan for the Western Balkans. He expressed his frustration that Northern Macedonia’s path to the EU is blocked for the time being. He pointed out that North Macedonia would no longer accept ultimatums.

Currently, 100,000 Macedonian citizens have obtained Bulgarian citizenship, proving that they have Bulgarian roots.





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