IN FOCUS: Ukraine & Moldova Brief

Review of March 2025

Petra Bošková, Vanesa Opšenáková, Anna Gúliková

UKRAINE

 Photo: President Of Ukraine – official site

Erdoğan Wants the Position of Mediator in the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is once again trying to become a mediator in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict; his last unsuccessful initiative for peace negotiations between the parties involved took place at the beginning of the war in Istanbul and Antalya in 2022. This is not an unexpected move by Erdoğan, as he has repeatedly announced that Turkey is more than a suitable host for peace negotiations and thinks that representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the US should come to Ankara to end the war. He primarily refers to the fact that Turkey has already been beneficial in the past within the framework of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, specifically in the case of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

In mid-February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Turkey, where he praised Erdoğan’s continued support for Ukraine, especially in terms of helping to broker the release of Ukrainian prisoners from Russian prisons. At that time, Erdoğan also raised the topic of a potential start of peace negotiations and announced the interest of Turkish Companies to participate in the reconstruction of the country. Presidents also signed two agreements in the fields of education, media and communication to confirm cooperation.

Shortly after meeting with Zelensky, during an EU online meeting, Erdoğan also supported his and Emmanuel Macron’s proposal for a ceasefire in the air and at sea between Russia and Ukraine. Subsequently, during a visit by a Turkish delegation to Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Erdoğan praised Ukraine’s confirmation of the ceasefire and suggested that Russia should respond in a similar way. Tusk supported Erdoğan’s commitment to promoting peace and hoped that Turkey would take responsibility for negotiations that would ensure stability in the entire region.

At the end of the month, Erdoğan also spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin, mainly discussing the possible renewal of the Black Sea Agreement as he sees the enabled and especially safe passage of Ukrainian ships through the Black Sea as one of the steps towards peace in Ukraine. He also reiterated to the Russian president that the offer to hold negotiations is still present.

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Prospects of the Ukrainian EU Membership in the Middle of the US and Ukraine Mineral Deal

Over the past couple of weeks, there has been an obvious shift in the stance of the USA towards the Russian war against Ukraine and the mineral rights deal is currently being reviewed and revisited by both sides. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that Kyiv’s lawyers are revising Washington’s draft, however, it has become apparent that the US offer is based on a demand for all Ukraine’s natural resources for the following years. Washington’s version of this agreement, except the fact that the US dramatically expanded its interests in rare minerals themselves, also includes the US aid to be considered as loans. This action would cost Ukraine greatly, because it would require Kyiv to hand over all the profit from a fund which controls Ukrainian resources until the whole sum is paid back with interest.

The main issue for the mineral deal is seen as that the priority of Ukraine is the accession to the EU as soon as possible and the US seem to be reluctant to further build up the relations with the EU. Nevertheless, as rooted in the Ukrainian constitution, it is in one of the highest national interests for Kyiv to continue its negotiations with Brussels, even though the first thing is gaining peace and returning to Ukrainian pre-war borders. The next corresponding steps for the integration into the EU are necessary reforms so that Ukraine can become an EU member, which, as stated by Zelenskyi, cannot be endangered by any deal with the US.

The current alleged draft of the mineral rights deal could contradict Ukraine’s EU accession due to severe restrictions that the EU requests from its members concerning the state’s economic sovereignty. The latest version of the agreement between the US and Ukraine is proposing an unprecedented system between the two on terms that would grant Washington somewhat control over Ukraine’s resources via a joint investment fund, therefore crossing the red lines of economic sovereignty. Based on the Ukrainian president’s statement, the deal will be seriously considered only when there are “no relevant legislative threats” to the perspective of the country and its future as a member state of the EU.

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MOLDOVA

Governor of Gagauzia Evghenia Gutul. Photo: Shutterstock.com

Moldova and Greece Open to New Cooperation in Culture And Tourism

On March 17,  the Moldovan Minister of Culture, Sergio Prodan, visited Athens, where they launched a new cultural cooperation, which should focus on the restoration of historical heritage and the promotion of architectural culture. According to Prodan, the planned forum in Thessaloniki, where specialists in the restoration of historical monuments will meet, could potentially be a space for the first step in establishing cooperation. Together with Greek Minister Lina Mendoni, they also discussed cultural exchange and the implementation of joint projects.

Greece and Moldova have this type of cooperation based on a tradition that goes back several centuries. There is a huge interest in the Greek language within Moldova, and its courses or study programs are also offered by some universities, including the Moldovan State University in Chisinau. Citizen Communities are also active in both countries, with Eleftheria and Parthenon being the most prominent. The same applies to Moldovans in Greece, and for this reason, Prodan decided to also reach out to the local community, awarding selected members certificates for promoting the cultural heritage of Moldova.

However, what still dominates between the countries in tourism, which makes new cultural projects all the more important. Up to 21,000 Moldovans chose Greece as a holiday destination in 2024, with visits to islands including Santorini, Crete and Rhodes. Prodan also met with Greek Tourism Minister Olga Kefalogianni, discussing how to expand tourism in Greece outside the season, especially in less traditional areas, including the mountains. Prodan, in turn, announced Moldova’s efforts to penetrate the Greek market thanks to its expertise in wine production, which could be attractive to Greek investors and tourists. After a joint meeting, the ministers confirmed the plan to renew the Joint Action Program for Cooperation in the Field of Tourism for the years 2026-2028.

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Russian Influence on an Autonomous Territory of Gagauzia through its Proclaimed Governor

Gagauzian governor Eugenia Gutul was placed in a 72-hour long custody due to the trial against her, which was opened last year and was based on using Russian funds for the purpose of supporting the pro-Russian Shor Party. This party got the media’s attention, as it allegedly received Russian financing from some well-known oligarchs through its leader, Ilan Shor, so it would be more substantial in destabilisation efforts in Moldova. Gutul has been known to cooperate with the Russian government as well, and she has sought support from the Kremlin and Putin himself on multiple occasions, including the one connected with her arrest.

The autonomous territory of Gagauzia was granted autonomy in 1994, and since then, it has been under strong Russian influence due to its connection to Russian culture and history. During the time of its existence, there have been frequent clashes between this region’s leading elite and Chisinau over cultural policies, economic development and foreign affairs. Gagauzian leadership often implies that the official Moldovan government is trying to suppress Gagauz’s autonomy’s legal rights and is pressuring Gutul with the criminal case to renounce her post and leave Gagauzia. Based on her statement, Moldova allegedly intends to introduce a state of emergency within the region to establish its external control.

Another part of the investigation into Gutul is the accusation that she helped with the anti-government protest in 2022, while Moscow has condemned Moldovan authorities’ actions, as they apparently disregard the basic principles of democratic system and political pluralism. However, at the same time, Chisinau has been actively countering Russian influence in Moldova by expelling dozens of Russian diplomats over espionage concerns. Moldovan pro-European president Maia Sandu refused to approve Gutul as a member of the government due to the charges of vote-buying and illegal Russian financing. Moldovan authorities have been monitoring the actions of the Russian embassy and do believe that Gutul is participating in the Kremlin’s destabilisation plans within the state.

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