IN FOCUS: Ukraine & Moldova Brief

Review of February 2025

Petra Bošková, Anna Gúliková, Vanesa Opšenáková

UKRAINE

 Photo: President of Ukraine/ offcial site

EU reacts to Trump’s plan to resolve the war in Ukraine

Following Donald Trump’s repeated statements that the US will not engage in foreign conflicts if it is to the detriment of national interests and raising the possibility that he will withdraw US support for Ukraine, the future of cooperation on security issues with the EU is unclear. After his displeasure over the Trump-Putin phone call mentioning peace talks without a European and Ukrainian presence and after Vice President JD Vance’s appearance at the Munich Security Conference, French President Emmanuel Macron alerted selected European leaders that the EU must act. The Summit on Ukraine and Security in Europe, initiated by Macron in Paris on February 17, mainly discussed how to ensure guarantees for Ukraine’s future without the US, increased -defence spending and the possibility of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine.

A total of 19 EU leaders attended the summit, which received criticism from uninvited states, with Slovenian President Nataša Pirc Musar expressing disappointment at the inequality between member states and negative comments from Slovak Prime Minister Róbert Fico, who said the EU had no power to decide on the presence of foreign troops on the territory of another state. It is the idea of sending a European peacekeeping force after a possible peace agreement to monitor its effectiveness that has been at the centre of disagreement among European leaders, with the UK saying it only sees this as a possibility if the US is involved, Germany finding such a reaction premature and Denmark remaining open to the idea. Poland has admitted to a lack of resources to implement the plan, and in talks about increasing defence spending in Europe, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk made it clear that if countries do not start investing now, they will have to invest more massively later, as several countries within the EU are still not even reaching the committed 2% of GDP for defence. On this issue, the leaders agreed on more investment in defence, adding that the EU wants to loosen fiscal rules so that countries can spend more without possible sanctions.

The summit thus concluded without a concrete statement due to several disagreements on fundamental issues, but all countries agreed that they do not accept the possibility that a solution to the war in Ukraine would take place without its or the EU’s presence. Senior US and Russian officials met in Riyadh a day after the Paris summit to discuss the planned summit between Trump and Putin, with the Russian side insisted that the meeting would be bilateral and aimed at restoring Russian-US relations. The European Union continues to insist that any solution must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and is actively seeking to secure a seat at the negotiating table.



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Trump’s stance towards Ukraine during the first month of his second administration

Just as Donald Trump entered his second term of the US presidency, the official approach of his administration seems to differ from the previous one. During the past couple of weeks, it has become obvious that the US intends to revive its diplomatic relations with Russia and means to resolve its current disagreements with Putin’s state, even when Ukraine is still in the middle of a war with Russia for its sovereignty. Based on that and somewhat strong wording from Trump, it would seem that Washington is more focused on stabilising bilateral relations with Moscow rather than helping Kyiv.

It was well stated even before the elections that Trump’s main goal was to end this war as soon as possible and on relatively good economic terms with Russia. However, other Western countries and mainly the EU believed that the US support would continue if they, too would invest greater sums in the defence system and military sector itself. Even while the US help remains in the picture for now, the stances taken by the Oval Office could be seen as concerning. During his discussion with Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Keir Starmer, Trump openly refused commitment to deploying US forces in Ukraine to safeguard a successful peacekeeping operation which would be led by European armies.

A deal which is supposed to ensure continuous help from the US concerning the exploitation of rare minerals in Ukraine was meant to be signed on the last day of February at the White House, but based on the live aired heated discussion between Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, it did not happen. The support of Washington is crucial in the war, and Kyiv is aware of this fact, however, the peace deal should be built on sovereign Ukrainian requirements as it is Russia who attacked another state. The US seems to be leaning towards aligning with Moscow since they have been leading two series of talks so far in Saudi Arabia and Istanbul. Trump’s position towards Zelenskyy and Ukraine itself is not clear, but he states that the peace deal should be achieved rapidly, even though so far, it has been discussed only without Ukraine present.



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MOLDOVA

 Photo: European Commission

Moldova-EU energy independence agreement and the Transnistrian „solution“

In response to Gazprom’s announcement in December 2024 to stop gas supplies to Moldova on January 1 2025, the country concluded an energy independence agreement with the European Union in early February. Gazprom stated an outstanding debt of  €682 million as the reason for the supply disruption, while Moldova acknowledged only  €8.2 million. The stoppage of supplies caused power cuts in the capital city, Chisinau and left over 350,000 inhabitants of the Transnistrian region without heating and electricity, which, naturally, also brought industrial production to a standstill.

This is not the first time that the European Union has supported Moldova to get out of its dependence on Russian gas, where Gazprom supplied 2 billion cubic meters of gas a year via Ukraine. Already since 2021, the European Union has provided Moldova with €240 million for energy reforms and other additional grants, including assistance in building the Energy Efficiency Fund for Moldovan households. In 2022, it even joined the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, becoming part of the European electricity transmission network, which also kicked off the government-controlled part of Moldova to start buying gas for the right bank of the Dniester exclusively from the EU. Although the current agreement represents a whole new era of cooperation, as Moldova has set itself the goal of full independence from Russian supplies by 2026, the future of Transnistria is still uncertain.

While both Moldova and the separatist region of Transnistria have declared a state of emergency in the wake of the energy crisis, reactions to it are different. Moldovan Prime Minister Dorian Recean described Russia’s decision to stop gas transit as a tool to destabilise the country and provide space for pro-Russian Moldovan groups to come to power. In the case of separatist leader Vadim Krasnoselsky, despite the alarming situation in Transnistria, there is hope for the resumption of gas supplies from Russia, which may be a complication in implementing the comprehensive two-year agreement with the EU.

With a budget of €250 million for this year, the agreement is expected to completely remove Moldova’s dependence on Russian supplies and integrate it fully into the European energy market, with the first €100 million to be allocated to support households by April 2025. The EU is also calling for Moldova to regain control of all energy assets owned by Gazprom.

Part of the support – €60 million was earmarked specifically for the Transnistrian region, but with the assumption that the region would start reforms in the area of human rights. Because of this condition, the separatists refused EU financial support, and Transnistria found a solution in the form of cooperation with the Hungarian company MET GAS and Energy Marketing, with payments mediated by the Dubai company JNX General Trading. Practically, it has thus bypassed direct dependence on Gazprom but continues to supply energy with Russian support via the Turksteam pipeline. The Moldovan government does not see a long-term solution behind these supplies, but at the same time, it is not blocking them to prevent a deepening crisis in Transnistria.



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Sandu addresses the Russian drones violating Moldovan airspace

On February 13, during the Russian drone attack on a Ukrainian port, an Iranian-designed drone, Shahed, exploded in Moldova, therefore violating the country’s airspace. This has been announced by Moldovan president Maia Sandu, who stated that “Russia’s war on Ukraine crossed into Moldova again”, putting Moldovan’s lives at risk. Due to this incident, Moldova’s Foreign Ministry summoned the head of Russian diplomacy in Chisinau to express its concerns about this “unacceptable violation”, which also poses a real threat to Moldovan national security and its citizens. Even if accidental, these incidents are in serious contradiction with international law, unjustly breaching the ruling norms.

The drones were targeting Reni port in the southern part of Ukraine, ending up in both Moldova and its neighbour, a NATO member Romania, and even though they did not cause any material harm nor injuries to humans, hitting only agricultural fields, they still crossed borders of two sovereign states which are not active participants in the war. The whole incident was observed by Moldovan border police, and national police have opened an investigation to pinpoint closer information. The Moldovan government, with the president, have stated that Russia disrespects any borders, targets civilians on purpose and spreads terror.

Such a matter is not the first of its kind throughout European territory and, according to Sandu, needs to be addressed seriously as Moldova lacks the necessary capabilities to defend itself. She stated that Chisinau has to strengthen its partnerships with European countries and rebuild its army to Western standards so Moldova can have some chance in situations like these. The national army, if it wants to have the capabilities to ensure citizens’ security, must enhance. Other state officials have also condemned Russian attacks on Ukraine, and even though this Russian incident was a first of its kind in Moldova, the need for reform is necessary, and Russia cannot violate the independence and sovereignty of yet another state.



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