IN FOCUS: Ukraine & Moldova Brief

Review of December 2024

Petra Bošková, Sára Gregová, Anna Gúliková

UKRAINE

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Ukrainian funding to be sponsored by the frozen Russian assets and its legitimacy

Former Estonia’s PM Kaja Kallas, who became a High Representative of the EU in December 2024, has already made a statement that the frozen Russian assets could be used as legitimate compensation for Ukraine. More than two-thirds of Russia’s sovereign assets are now held by the EU, and the legality of holding the full sum can be questioned. Kallas raised pressure on the financial potential of the frozen assets for Ukraine as it would help to pay for the damage that Russia caused and is yet to cause to Ukraine in its aggression. With the second Trump administration, there is a possibility that the aid coming from the US may be lowered or even stopped, and in that case, the EU would need to step up.

This stance of the EU comes as an answer to the US aid, which is earned from Russia’s immobilised assets, and these finances should provide Ukraine with critical assistance in defence of its sovereignty. The US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has stated that Russia should bear the cost of its illegal war instead of the taxpayers. The sum of $20bn provided by Biden’s administration had been transferred to the World Bank fund, which is supposed to be available for Ukraine to draw from, however cannot be used for military purposes. If the US were to give any part of this amount to military aid, it would have to be approved by Congress.

Investment in Ukraine’s military capabilities and other infrastructure is the investment in the security of the EU, as it is highly believed that if the war had ended in Russia’s victory, it would have caused other conflicts. Russia is known to be pushing its borders further from its centre, and there is no hesitation that the phenomenon would not come to an end if it were to win. The mentioned aid from the US, which is in its base on Russia’s frozen assets, is by Russia being considered a “common theft”. Russian MFA made a statement that the funding is “only to support Zelensky’s bankrupt regime”, and this US action will ricochet their own country.



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Assad’s Collapse: What It Means for Ukraine’s Fight Against Russia

The sudden collapse of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, has sent shockwaves through the Middle East, signalling a sharp decline in Russia’s influence in the region. With Assad reportedly fleeing to Russia for asylum, the future of Moscow’s military bases in Syria is now up in the air. This isn’t just a tactical loss—it’s a major blow to Russia’s global reputation. But what this means for Ukraine is still up for debate.

Some experts think Assad’s downfall could give Ukraine an edge in peace talks with Russia. It shows that Russia isn’t invincible and could motivate more resistance against its war in Ukraine. A weakened Russia might also rally more international support for Kyiv, as Assad’s defeat proves that Moscow’s military ambitions can be stopped.

For the Kremlin, this is bad news. Assad was one of Russia’s closest allies in the Middle East, and his regime symbolised the success of Russian military power. Losing him, along with key bases in Syria like the naval port in Tartus and the airbase in Hmeimim, would limit Russia’s ability to project power in the region and beyond, including Africa and the Mediterranean.

This could indirectly help Ukraine. If Russia is struggling to maintain its influence elsewhere, it may have fewer resources to focus on the war in Ukraine. Some analysts believe this could give Ukraine more leverage in negotiations, as Moscow’s weakening grip on Syria reflects broader challenges, including low morale and stretched military capacity.

Not everyone agrees on how much this will impact the war in Ukraine, though. Some argue that the direct effects may be minimal, while others highlight how it damages Putin’s image as a strongman. But one thing seems clear: Russia’s failure to keep Assad in power shows just how much the war in Ukraine is draining its resources and raising doubts about how long it can keep up the fight.

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MOLDOVA

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President Maia Sandu meets high representatives of the EU and NATO in Brussels

The President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, has been trying to achieve a shift towards EU membership since the beginning of her first administration and Moldova, under her rule, became an official EU applicant in March 2022. The European Commission outlined 9 steps that are necessary for Moldova to address to move forward the accession process. The country was included in the presented package reports for the first time in November 2023, in which the Commission recommended the European Council for negotiations to be opened with Moldova as well as Ukraine and Georgia. The Council approved this decision before the end of 2023.

During her official visit to Brussels on December 10, 2024,  as a relatively newly re-elected Moldovan president, Sandu had meetings with the President of the European Council, the President of the European Commission and the European Commissioner for Enlargement. These are sending out the message that Sandu is determined to continue and further improve Moldova’s position as the EU applicant country. A great part of December’s meetings has been financial support earmarked from the EU to aid Moldova with the establishment of new reforms for the justice system and economic stability. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated that the pivotal cluster of accession negotiations is to be opened in 2025.

During her visit to Brussels, Sandu also visited the NATO Headquarters and met with the NATO Secretary General. Moldova has been an official NATO partner since 1992 and from that point, the Organisation has supported Chisinau’s efforts to reform and modernise its defence and security structures. The partnership is based on the aspiration to improve the country’s capabilities and ensure interoperability within the cooperation. Secretary General underlined Moldova’s resilience to political pressure and Russian attempts to interfere with the internal politics of the country. This meeting shows the support NATO and the Allies are providing to the sovereign state of Moldova and the encouragement to its path into European integration.



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Moldova Declares State of Emergency Amid Looming Russian Gas Cutoff

On December 13, Moldova’s parliament approved a 60-day state of emergency starting December 16 as the country braces for a potential cut-off of Russian gas supplies on January 1. The vote, which came just after midnight, resulted in 56 out of 101 lawmakers supporting the measure following a plea from Prime Minister Dorin Recean. He emphasised the need to secure gas for the separatist Transnistria region and push back against what he called Moscow’s “gas blackmail.”

The state of emergency allows the government to swiftly implement crisis measures, including restricting energy exports, to address “imminent risks” if Moscow halts gas supplies to the Kuciurgan power plant, the largest in the country, located in the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria.

The gas-powered Kuciurgan plant, run by a Russian state-owned company, supplies much of Moldova’s electricity. While Transnistrian officials privatised the plant in 2004, Moldova does not recognise the move. In late 2022, Russian attacks on Ukraine caused major power outages in Moldova, as the plant is linked to Ukraine’s grid. Moldova currently receives Russian gas through Ukraine, but with the transit contract between Ukraine and Gazprom set to expire on December 31, supplies are at risk. Recean accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of using energy as a weapon, aiming to cut off gas and electricity to Transnistria to create chaos in Moldova. He urged lawmakers to make this winter “the last time” Moldova could be held hostage by energy threats.

Without gas for Transnistria, the government warned, Moldova could face a humanitarian crisis and serious disruptions to its electricity supply. Currently, all Russian gas received by Moldova is directed to Transnistria under a 2022 agreement. The breakaway region, which relies heavily on Russian gas to power its economy and supply electricity to the rest of Moldova, declared its own economic state of emergency earlier this week.

Recean argued that Ukraine’s refusal to renew the transit contract wasn’t the real issue, claiming alternative routes, like the TurkStream pipeline through Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania, could be used. However, alternative supplies aren’t guaranteed. Gazprom has tied future deliveries to Moldova’s payment of a $709 million debt, while Bulgaria has warned it will stop Russian gas transit unless Gazprom finds a way to bypass US sanctions affecting Gazprombank.

As winter looms, Moldova faces tough decisions to secure energy and protect its citizens from the fallout of geopolitical tensions.

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