Russia may signal greater involvement in Nagorno Karabakh conflict, but no boots on the ground for now

Analysts and local journalists draw attention to several events possibly signalising an increasing Russian involvement in the Nagorno Karabakh war. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev blamed Moscow for supplying Armenian forces with vital arms and other military equipment.

Until now, the war was characteristic by Russia’s relatively hands-off approach to Nagorno Karabakh, which is not recognised as a part of Armenia and therefore is not covered by The Collective Security Treaty Organization.

The first sign of more direct involvement is a small military outpost, Russia set up on the border of Armenia next to Tegh. This settlement is located on the road to a strategically essential Lachin corridor connecting Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Although neither Russia nor Armenia have officially confirmed the existence of the outpost, it was reported by foreign journalists. As Eurasianet wrote in its assessment of the situation, the Russian deployment in this vital narrow region is a “significant deterrence for Azerbaijan”, since despite its small size it would act as a “tripwire deterring Baku from triggering a more substantial Russian response”.

Carey Cavanaugh, United States Ambassador and Special Negotiator for Eurasian Conflicts, agrees that Azerbaijani attack on Lachin corridor would cause “a humanitarian catastrophe” and might drag Russia in the conflict. “If this corridor is severed, the conflict will stand on the brink of a humanitarian disaster. This could lead Moscow to act in accordance with its mutual defence pact with Armenia which in turn could elicit the entry of the Turkish military,” claimed the diplomat.

Alleged Russian involvement in the conflict was also criticised by Aliyev in his interview for Italian TV channel Rai-1. “After all, we do not talk every day about how many weapons are supplied from Russia to Armenia. We do not talk about the fact that Armenia would not have lasted a day in the occupied territories without external assistance. Political support, military support, moral support – all this comes from countries that are supposed to stay neutral,” said the President.

International media also informed about other less direct, yet still indicative steps by Kremlin. Stephen Bryen claimed for the Asia Times on October 26, that Moscow “has unleashed” its “drone killer” electronic warfare system ‘Belladonna’ in Armenia” knocking out at least nine Turkish Bayraktar armed UAV’s.

Moreover, some analysts suggested already in the first days of the war, that Kremlin, instead of conducting operations directly in the Nagorno Karabakh, might disengage Ankara’s involvement in the South Caucasus by causing trouble in Syria or Libya. And indeed, on October 26 Russia conducted an airstrike on the military training camp of Failaq al-Sham, one of the largest Ankara-backed groups in Syria, just several kilometres from the Turkish border. The attack, which claimed lives of at least 78 fighters and injured many others, was seen by many experts as “a message to Turkey”.

For now, however, Russia does not seem eager to send boots on the ground of Nagorno Karabakh. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 31 requesting ‘immediate consultations to determine the type of assistance that the Russian Federation can provide to the Republic of Armenia’. Kremlin reacted with a statement saying that Russia will give Yerevan “all assistance necessary” if the fighting reaches Armenia proper.

Sources:

• MEJLUMYAN Ani, Eurasianet.org, „Small outpost is Russia’s first visible aid to Armenia“, https://eurasianet.org/small-outpost-is-russias-first-visible-aid-to-armenia
• Haqqin.az, „Ильхам Алиев: Российская военная база снабжает армянскую армию (Ilham Aliyev: Russian military base supplies the Armenian army)“, https://haqqin.az/news/192507
• BRYEN Stephen, Asia Times, Russia knocking Turkish drones from Armenian skies, https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/russia-knocking-turkish-drones-from-armenian-skies/
• The National News, „Russia airstrike in Idlib warning to Turkey on other international action, say experts“, https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/mena/russia-air-strike-in-idlib-warning-to-turkey-on-other-international-action-say-experts-1.1101602
• NAJJAR Farah, „Al Jazeera, Russian strike on Syria’s Idlib fighters a ‘message’ to Turkey“, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/27/russian-strike-in-syrias-idlib-a-message-to-ankara
• JAMnews, „Live updates: Day 35 of Nagorno-Karabakh fighting“, https://oc-media.org/live-updates-day-35-of-nagorno-karabakh-fighting/
• Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Заявление МИД России в связи с обращением Премьер-министра Республики Армения Н.В.Пашиняна к Президенту Российской Федерации В.В.Путину  (Statement by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in connection with the appeal of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikolai Pashinyan to the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin), https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4411939

For additional information, see:

• KRUTIKOV Evgeny, VZ.ru, „Почему Армения терпит поражение в Карабахе (Why Armenia is losing in Karabakh)“, https://m.vz.ru/world/2020/10/27/1067238.html?fbclid=IwAR3vHZVcPF-NCUuGv0xEDPlUMdHCKUL_IurWuU_zCRCp0gv8vanS_bHvAy0

Georgian opposition parties signed an agreement not to form a coalition government with the ruling party

Georgian opposition political parties have agreed on October 30 not to form a coalition government with the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party.

The opposition parties, including the United National Movement, the European Georgia, Strategy Aghmashenebeli, Girchi, the Labor Party, the Republican Party, European Democrats, Victorious Georgia, Democratic Movement – United Georgia, and the Movement – State for People, signed an agreement, pledging to not form a coalition government with the GD party regardless of the outcome of October 31 parliamentary election. „Cooperation between the opposition today and the coalition partners tomorrow will be the key to bringing goodness to the country“, – said Giorgi Vashadze, leader of the Strategy Aghmashenebeli party.

Under the recently approved amendments of the Georgian constitution, the 2020 parliamentary elections are being held based on what is referred to as the 120/30 system, which means that 120 MPs will be elected through proportional party lists and 30 using the majoritarian voting system. Also, the election threshold was fixed at 1 % of votes, while a constraint barring any single party that receives less than 40 % of votes from claiming a majority of seats in the Parliament was enacted as well. The amendments also introduced the so-called 25% gender quotas, meaning that in their proportional party-list, the political parties are obliged to include at least every fourth person of a different gender. Also, starting from 2024, Georgia will move to a fully proportional system.

Some analysts believe that given changes might lead to a first coalition government in Georgian post-soviet history.

Sources:

• Interpressnews, “Opposition parties sign agreement not to form coalition government with Georgian Dream“, https://www.interpressnews.ge/en/article/109935-opposition-parties-sign-agreement-not-to-form-coalition-government-with-georgian-dream
• Civil.ge, „Opposition Parties Pledge to Reject Coalition Gov’t with GD“, https://civil.ge/archives/378436

For additional information, see:

• LOMSADZE Giorgi, Eurasianet.org, „Georgia adopts landmark election reform“, https://eurasianet.org/georgia-adopts-landmark-election-reform

Bank robbery fuels pre-election tensions in Georgia

Masked robber in a military uniform, armed with firearms and hand-grenades broke into the Bank of Georgia building in the western Georgian town of Zugdidi in the afternoon of October 21, taking 43 people hostage. After approximately 8 hours, assailant, who requested 500,000 USD, managed to leave premises of the bank in a car with four hostages, including the Head of the Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti Regional Police, Avtandil Galdava.

“Perhaps 10 out of 43 hostages were accomplices of the criminal, but it is impossible to say for sure,” said Minister of Internal Affairs of Georgia, Vakhtang Gomelauri, in his first commentary for the media following the incident.

At a press conference on October 26, the Deputy Interior Minister Vladimer Bortsvadze confirmed the identity of the Zugdidi bank robber, who is still at large, as Badri Esebua.

Taking place just ten days in the run-up to crucial parliamentary elections, the incident has added to already high pre-election tensions. As Civil.ge reported, the pro-governmental Imedi TV came with a story that Irakli Kvaratskhelia, one of the hostages who was instructed by the hostage-taker to call into the live broadcast on pro-opposition Mtavari Arkhi TV and transmit the assailant’s demands, is a supporter of the United National Movement party (UNM). Imedi TV suggested in this respect that the UNM was linked to the robbery and sought to benefit from it electorally.

Supporters of the UNM, on the other hand, speculated on social media that the incident was, in fact, staged by the government. Nanuka Zhorzholiani, who is running as an MP for the UNM, suggested that the situation appeared ‘artificial’ and ‘unbelievable’.

Meanwhile, Giorgi Gabedava, Zugdidi majoritarian candidate of the nativist Georgian March accused Gigi Ugulava, the European Georgia’s majoritarian candidate in Zugdidi of pulling strings, triggering a brawl between the supporters of the two parties.

Source:

• OC-media, „Hostage-taker remains at large after evading police in Zugdidi“, https://oc-media.org/hostage-taker-remains-at-large-after-evading-police-in-zugdidi/
• JAMnews, „Zugdidi bank robber took money from bank, not from state“, https://jam-news.net/bank-robbery-in-zugdidi-georgia-news-ransom-paid-by-the-bank-mia-gomelauri/