Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

Second half of February 2025

Petra Bošková,  Kristína Šebová, Kristína Piknová, Matúš Vicen, Lucia Jašková

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Albania
Corruption Allegations Against Albanian Mayor Intensify

Following his arrest on February 10, Tirana Mayor Erion Veliaj remains in detention as prosecutors continue their corruption case against him. Veliaj, a key figure in the ruling Socialist Party and an ally of Prime Minister Edi Rama, faces charges of corruption and money laundering.

From behind bars, Veliaj has escalated his rhetoric against the judiciary, using social media to launch verbal attacks on the prosecutor and judge handling his case. On Monday, he described the proceedings against him as “a dangerous farce and an orchestrated setup” in a post on his Facebook profile.

Shortly after, he shared what he claimed was a transcript from his first court hearing, criticising the judge’s conduct. However, the Special Court Against Corruption and Organized Crime swiftly refuted the document’s authenticity, stating: “The transcript published by the defendant, Erion Veliaj, on Facebook is false.”

Observers argue that Veliaj’s actions are an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of the prosecution through pro-government media and to erode public trust in judicial institutions. Prime Minister Rama has also publicly criticised the prosecutors and judge, expressing his support for Veliaj.

Both Veliaj and his wife have denied all allegations, asserting that they are victims of a politically motivated attack led by Special Anti-Corruption Structure (SPAK) prosecutor Dado.

Legal experts have raised concerns about Veliaj’s combative approach. Lawyer Gentian Serjani warned that such accusations set a dangerous precedent: “With this strategy, Veliaj is giving criminals a blueprint for blackmailing and threatening prosecutors across Albania.”



Sources:
  • Karaj V. & Sinoruka F., Balkan Insight. Tirana.: “Albania Mayor Takes Aim at Corruption Prosecutor from Detention”. https://balkaninsight.com/2025/02/25/albanian-mayor-takes-aim-at-corruption-prosecutor-from-detention/
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Sarajevo court sentenced Dodik to one year in prison and banned him from holding office for six years

On February 26, the Bosnian court issued a first-instance verdict against the president of Republika Srpska, Miloroad Dodik, for not recognising the ruling of the High Representative (HR) for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt. Milos Lucic, the acting director of the Serb entity’s Official Gazette, was also accused in this case, but the court found him not guilty.

This stems from a law passed by the government of the Republika Srpska in the summer of 2023, which refused to recognise the ruling and include it in the Official Gazette of the Bosnian Serb entity. In response to attempts to block the enforcement of the HR ruling over the people of the Republika Srpska, the HR decided to criminalise defiance of his decisions. This step led to the prosecution of Dodik and Lucic on a state level.

Dodik has threatened that if there is a guilty verdict, there will be consequences. Other Republika Srpska government politicians and mayors, except for the opposition, at a meeting held in Banja Luka after the last court session, stated that the response to the guilty verdict should be radical. This was followed by a special session of the government of the entity, where it was stated that after the court ruling, every measure necessary to protect the interests of the citizens of Republika Srpska should be implemented. This was confirmed when, right after the guilty verdict, Dodik stated that he would restrict the jurisdiction of state-level judicial and security institutions in Republika Srpska.

This dispute between Christian Schmidt and Republika Srpska began with Schmidt’s appointment as High Representative, as they accused him of being appointed in violation of the Dayton Agreement. The issue is that Schmidt was appointed to office in 2021 but wasn’t approved by the UN Security Council. There was a risk that Russia would veto his nomination. Other nations do not require the approval of the UNSC. Additionally, the British embassy stated that it supports the HR and has the backing of the Quint nations in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Bosnian court decision has been condemned by traditional regional partners like Serbia, Hungary, and Russia.

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Photo: Shutterstock.com

Montenegro
Montenegro Seeks Justice for Victims of Communist-Era Repression

On February 26, Montenegrin President Jakov Milatovic called on the national parliament to approve legislation that would compensate individuals who suffered imprisonment at the notorious Goli Otok political prison. He described the initiative as a crucial step toward acknowledging past wrongs and ensuring justice for those affected.

Milatovic emphasised that Montenegro, as a democratic nation based on the rule of law, must not overlook the historical mistreatment of citizens who were persecuted for their real or perceived political affiliations. These individuals endured severe physical and psychological abuse, often without a fair trial or the opportunity to prove their innocence. He stressed that the proposed legislation would not only provide financial compensation but also offer moral and legal rehabilitation for the victims.

“I urge all members of parliament, regardless of their political stance, to support this initiative and the law it proposes. By doing so, we reaffirm Montenegro’s commitment to truth, justice, and the dignity of its citizens,” Milatovic stated in an official press release.

In April 2024, he announced further discussions with institutions and victim advocacy groups to facilitate the law’s passage and implementation.

Goli Otok, an isolated island in present-day Croatia, was used as a prison camp following Yugoslavia’s break with Stalin’s Soviet Union in 1948. Individuals suspected of Soviet sympathies were incarcerated under harsh conditions. Approximately 16,500 people were detained there, with 413 recorded deaths due to executions, inhumane conditions, or suicides.

According to the Montenegrin Goli Otok Association, 3,390 Montenegrins were among those imprisoned. Since 1992, the association has pushed for a law that would offer financial reparations to survivors.

Other former Yugoslav republics have already addressed this issue. Serbia and Croatia granted survivors compensation of seven EUR per day of imprisonment, while Slovenia provided ten EUR per day.

Goli Otok was repurposed as a prison for common criminals and juvenile offenders after 1956, eventually closing in 1988. The suffering of political prisoners remained a largely unspoken topic in Yugoslavia until the 1980s, when discussions on historical injustices began to emerge.



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Kosovo
Challenges for the newly elected Kurti’s government: Building a National Army Amid Economic Struggles and Regional Tensions

It has been a month since elections were held on the territory of Kosovo, which was won by Albin Kurti’s left-wing Self-Determination Movement party. Kurti‘s government is in Kosovo’s latest history to finish its full term in office.

Increasing public administration pay and pensions, enhancing health and education, and combating poverty are just a few of the problems Kurti’s next term in office will face. With 1.6 million people living there, Kosovo is among the poorest nations in Europe, with a per capita GDP of less than €6,000 annually.

In addition to the points mentioned above, the transformation of the Kosovo Security Force (KSF) is a challenge for the new Kurti government. Kosovo’s defence capabilities have gained prominence in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukrainian territory and its armed forces buildup throughout the Balkans.

Established in 2009, the Kosovo Security Force (KSF) is primarily responsible for civil defence, crisis response, and ordnance disposal. The parliament of Kosovo legislated a law in 2018 increasing the size of the security forces from 2,500 to 5,000 soldiers. PM Kurti himself said late last year that the KSF should be transformed into an army by 2028.

Serbia is strongly opposed to the substitution of the army for the KSF as the defence forces. Apart from Serbia, the European Union and NATO have also adopted a conflicted position. Some Western nations are concerned about increased interethnic tensions, according to Euronews. Some argue that a “light” army is an essential component of the Kosovo state and the key to maintaining the balance of power in southeast Europe. The US has been a major supporter of the KSF, along with Germany, Turkey, and the UK. However, Serbia is now hoping that Washington will change its mind about backing Kosovo.

As part of a UN mandate, the international peacekeeping force (KFOR) and the EU Rule of Law Office Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) have been the nation’s military protection forces and a backup to its police and judiciary since the conflict in the 1990s and the NATO bombing campaign against Serbian forces in 1999. Under a UN mandate, NATO’s KFOR continues to be an essential peacekeeping force in Kosovo, ensuring stability. But to assume responsibility for security, Kosovo is putting more and more effort into building up its military. In addition to ordering US-made Black Hawk helicopters and Javelin missiles, Kosovo has purchased Turkish Bayraktar drones. To support the defence industry, plans call for the construction of a drone design lab and a state-owned munitions plant. The goal of this development is to improve national security and lessen dependency on foreign suppliers.



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Photo: Shutterstock.com

Serbia
Serbia’s Corruption Crisis, USAID Controversy, and Diplomatic Apology Amid Growing protests

The former mayor of Nis was arrested for allegedly awarding construction contracts to companies in the southern Serbian city while bypassing procurement laws. This marks one of several corruption-related arrests in Serbia over the past few days.

Dragana Sotirovski, the former mayor, was arrested on February 21, along with three other individuals, on suspicion of abusing their official positions. In addition to Sotirovski, police detained a representative from the company Vodomonteri in Lalinci, as well as another individual from Sim Puk Gradnja in Maloliste. Sotirovski is accused of misusing her position as mayor and head of the Nis Emergency Situations Headquarters to award construction contracts to Vodomonteri and Sim Puk Gradnja for projects in Nis. Officials suspect the companies unlawfully obtained more than 4 million EUR. Police also seized 11 vehicles, trucks, and other machinery.

Sotirovski’s high-profile arrest is part of a broader crackdown following President Vučić’s pledge to fight corruption—an effort made amidst ongoing public protests demanding accountability for the 15 fatalities in the Novi Sad railway station disaster on November 1, 2024. Analysts believe Vučić is attempting to address accusations from protesters about widespread corruption within the government.

Furthermore, on February 25, Serbian police raided four civil society organisations (CSOs) to investigate the potential misuse of USAID funds, according to the Higher Public Prosecutor’s Office in Belgrade. The investigation is based on claims from several U.S. officials regarding the global misuse of USAID funds. In response, the CSOs accused the government of undermining basic civil rights and continuing unlawful pressure on civil society. They also claim that the government is using intimidation and persecution tactics on organisations despite the pending adoption of the Law on Foreign Agents in Parliament.

This action follows the decision by the Trump administration to freeze foreign funding for 90 days in January and subsequent efforts to dismantle the aid agency, including the dismissal of over a thousand employees.

Finally, on February 25, President Vučić supported a UN resolution on Ukrainian sovereignty alongside 93 other countries. Vučić repeatedly stated that the vote was a mistake and issued a sincere apology to the Serbian people for the incident. He emphasised that he takes full responsibility and deeply regrets the error. Following his public apology, the Kremlin expressed understanding, suggesting it might have been a “technical mistake.” Moscow also acknowledged Vučić’s quick apology. Serbia remains the only candidate country in the Western Balkans that has not aligned with EU sanctions against Russia.



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North Macedonia
North Macedonia Moves to Auction Confiscated Assets of Former Officials

Authorities in North Macedonia are preparing to sell off properties once owned by former Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski and his cousin, ex-secret police chief Saso Mijalkov. The state agency responsible for confiscated assets estimates that the auctions could generate around 29 million EUR.

Speaking to Telma TV, agency head Irena Ilievska confirmed that all remaining unsold properties tied to the court rulings would soon be placed on the market.

The expected revenue breakdown suggests that assets linked to Gruevski could bring in approximately 8 million EUR, while those associated with Mijalkov may fetch around 21 million EUR.

Gruevski’s holdings include five apartments in Skopje—two in the prestigious Crnice district and three in the upscale Panorama Residence complex in Vodno. Additionally, construction land in Vodno and other regions will be auctioned. His apartments are valued at 1.9 million EUR, while the construction plots are estimated at 5.8 million EUR.

Gruevski, who governed the country from 2006 to 2016, fled to Hungary in 2018 to avoid a two-year prison sentence for the illegal purchase of a luxury vehicle. He remains the subject of multiple corruption cases, some of which continue in his absence. In one such case, he was sentenced to nine years for misusing political party donations to acquire personal property. However, recent changes to the criminal code in 2023—currently under review by the Constitutional Court—have led to the expiration of some charges.

Despite these legal uncertainties, the asset liquidation process still requires government approval. The current administration is led by Hristijan Mickoski, Gruevski’s successor, as head of the VMRO-DPMNE party.

Mijalkov, a key figure during Gruevski’s tenure, faced multiple legal proceedings, including a 2021 conviction for orchestrating mass illegal wiretapping between 2008 and 2015. Although initially sentenced to 12 years, a retrial and subsequent legal changes led to the dismissal of charges in 2023.

The bulk of Mijalkov’s confiscated assets stems from the “Empire” case, which covered offences such as fraud, organised crime, and money laundering between 2002 and 2013. As part of a plea deal in 2022, he admitted guilt, resulting in a reduced three-year sentence and the forfeiture of roughly 30 million EUR in property. After serving part of his term, he was released early for good behaviour.

His seized assets include 25 apartments, a prime construction lot in Skopje’s centre, and various commercial properties and land parcels. While some have already been auctioned, assets worth an estimated 21 million EUR remain to be sold.

In 2024, a company owned by Mijalkov’s son, Jordan, legally acquired three apartments and a garage in Vodno that had been confiscated from his father. The purchase price was reportedly under 300,000 EUR. While the law prohibits convicted individuals from bidding on their own seized properties, it does not explicitly prevent family members from participating in auctions.



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