Strategic Analysis Caucasus Brief

Review of November and December 2024

Tomáš Baranec 

Armenia

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Polish President Duda’s visit to Armenia sparks political tussle with Azerbaijan

On November 26, Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan met with Polish President Andrzej Duda during the latter’s official visit to Yerevan. The two leaders held a one-on-one meeting, followed by expanded-format discussions. After their talks, they delivered press statements emphasising key regional and bilateral issues.

Armenian President Khachaturyan outlined Armenia’s vision for establishing peace in the South Caucasus. He shared details of the Crossroads of Peace initiative, highlighting Armenia’s approach to achieving lasting regional stability. Khachaturyan reaffirmed Armenia’s commitment to resolving disputes with its neighbours through constructive dialogue and negotiations. “The Republic of Armenia has an unwavering stance on achieving peace and resolving the existing issues with neighbours through constructive dialogue and negotiations,” he stated. Khachaturyan expressed confidence that the Crossroads of Peace project encapsulates Armenia’s strategy for fostering enduring peace and security in the region.

President Duda underscored the need for peace and stability in the Caucasus at the press conference, reiterating Poland’s readiness to support a peaceful resolution to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. He acknowledged the broader regional instability caused by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, noting its ripple effects on the Caucasus.

Duda highlighted cooperation in the financial sector, praising the agreement signed in Davos on the cooperation between the Armenian and Warsaw Stock Exchange, noting that the project of developing the capital market “is being successfully implemented”. The Warsaw Stock Exchange acquired 65% of the Armenian Stock Exchange in May 2022.

According to OC Media, Dudas’s visit to Yerevan sparked a minor political crisis in Polish–Azerbaijani relations after Duda included a brief stop at an observation point of the EU Mission in Armenia. Duda’s post contained no commentary or opinions about the mission, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, or other related issues.  Nonetheless, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry wrote on X that the visit was “another demonstration of anti-Azerbaijani policy” from the EU and other European institutions.

Noting that Duda was holding binoculars in the short video attached with the post, the Foreign Ministry called it an “unacceptable diplomatic binocular show”, and said it was “leading to the aggravation of relations between Azerbaijan and Poland”.

Subsequently, the Foreign Ministry issued a summons to Poland’s Chargé d’Affaires in Azerbaijan, Michał Greczyło. In a statement about the summons, the Foreign Ministry said Duda’s visit was a “provocation” that “contradicts Azerbaijani–Polish relations”.

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Armenian PM insists country has irrevocably broken with the Russia-led CSTO

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan insists his country’s break with the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has passed the “point of no return.” Speaking at a parliamentary session in Yerevan on December 4, Pashinyan reiterated that Armenia now considers itself effectively outside the military alliance, having suspended its participation and choosing not to veto documents under discussion at the CSTO’s most recent meeting. He also criticised other CSTO members for failing to fulfil their treaty obligations by not coming to Armenia’s aid during the Second Karabakh War, which resulted in Azerbaijan’s reconquest of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

“We have fulfilled all our allied obligations accurately, both morally, politically, and legally, but the allied obligations towards us have not been fulfilled,” the Armenpress news agency quoted Pashinyan as saying. “In a difficult moment, they [the CSTO] left us alone, they abandoned us, and yes, there are opinions that we were betrayed.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov commented on Pashinyan’s statement by claiming that no documents regarding withdrawal from the CSTO have been received from Armenia. “We [i.e. Russia] hear these rumours that the prime minister of Armenia spoke and discussed this topic in parliament. We do not impose anything on anyone. We are convinced that making the most of [CSTO] membership is in the interests of Armenia’s security. Russia and other CSTO members have not taken and are not going to take any action that will be perceived as closing the doors of Yerevan,” Lavrov said.

Sources:
  •  AVETISYAN Ani, Eurasianet.org, “Armenian PM insists country has irrevocably broken with the Russia-led CSTO”, https://eurasianet.org/armenian-pm-insists-country-has-irrevocably-broken-with-the-russia-led-csto
  • News.am, “Russia’s Lavrov comments on Armenia’s decision to withdraw from CSTO”, https://news.am/eng/news/855794.html
UNESCO “concerned” about the destruction of Armenian heritage in Nagorno-Karabakh

A top UNESCO official, Krista Pikkat, has expressed concern about widespread reports of destruction of Armenian cultural heritage sites in Nagorno-Karabakh. Pikkat, director of the UNESCO Culture and Emergencies Entity and Secretary of the 1954 Hague Convention and its two protocols (1954 and 1999), said Nagorno-Karabakh has been the focus of UNESCO for many years, and the organisation is concerned about the reports on the alleged destruction of various types of cultural heritage there.

Pikkat said on October 30 that during the previous conflict, the UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay wanted to immediately dispatch a technical mission to the region to take stock of the situation and to understand the needs of how UNESCO can help to preserve and protect the diverse heritage.

“The discussions on the dispatch of the mission, the composition, and also the focus of the mission were laid at the highest level with the concerned parties. Now that the situation has changed, this mission can no longer be dispatched under the 1954 Hague Convention. We are now discussing with the Azerbaijani authorities how we can support them,” Pikkat said.

On December 5, organisations supporting Armenian refugees and displaced people from former de facto Nagorno-Karabakh issued a joint letter addressed to António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, and Audrey Azoulay, Director-General of UNESCO. In the letter, organisations expressed concern over cultural heritage in the region.

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Photo: Shutterstock.com

Armenian cabinet members resign following Pashinyan’s criticism

On November 18, six cabinet members resigned following Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s criticism last week of the poor performance of the judicial, legal, and law enforcement bodies. It was confirmed that as of the afternoon, six officials resigned — Judicial Council President Karen Andreasyan, Anti-Corruption Committee President Sasun Khachatryan, Minister of Internal Affairs Vahe Ghazaryan, the Chairman of the Investigative Committee Argishti Kyaramyan, the Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures Gnel Sanosyan, and the Chairman of the State Revenue Committee Rustam Badasyan.

Amid the official confirmations of the resignations, Pashinyan commented on the issue in a Facebook post, stating that he had asked several government officials to resign. “The reasons for asking them to do so are not personal, but systemic, which I have publicly talked about,” said Pashinyan.

According to Eurasianet.com, the turmoil started brewing at a November 15 cabinet meeting when Pashinyan delivered an unusually scathing critique of Armenia’s judiciary and law enforcement agencies. His frustration was visible as he vented about the lack of progress on long-promised reforms. Referring to public discontent over delayed justice, ineffective anti-corruption measures and a surge in crime rates, he warned his team that his “cup of patience” had run out. Local media outlets started publishing unverified reports on November 17 that resignations were pending.

Opposition politicians have accused the prime minister of using civil servants as scapegoats to deflect blame for the systemic failures of his government. They also suggested that the mass resignations were part of a broader effort by Pashinyan to prepare the ground for early elections and heighten his chances of renewing his political mandate.

“Nikol Pashinyan is trying to save his damaged reputation by sacrificing his team,” Tigran Abrahamyan, an opposition leader, claimed, pointing to the possibility of early elections. Some critics say Pashinyan’s recent moves, including his decision to shave off his trademark beard, signal an intent to reset his image with voters. Pashinyan insists, however, that “these decisions are about creating a stronger Armenia.”

Sources:
  •  AVETISYAN Ani, Eurasianet.org, “Major government shake-up in Armenia”, https://eurasianet.org/major-government-shake-up-in-armenia
  • BARSEGHYAN Arshaluys, “The Armenian Mirror-Spectator, Cabinet Members Resign Following Pashinyan’s Criticism”, https://mirrorspectator.com/2024/11/19/cabinet-members-resign-following-pashinyans-criticism/
ICJ accepts jurisdiction over Azerbaijan vs. Armenia cases, rejects objections against Armenia

Judges at the International Court of Justice ruled on November 12 that competing anti-discrimination cases between Azerbaijan and Armenia can progress. The ICJ ruled that it had jurisdiction to proceed with ruling on the lawsuits filed by Armenia and Azerbaijan. Both countries have accused each other of violating a UN regulation prohibiting racial discrimination known as the (CERD) related to the decades-long conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.

In addition to ruling on jurisdiction, the ICJ rejected all of Azerbaijan’s objections in the case against Armenia. At the same time, the court accepted two of Armenia’s objections and dismissed another in the case. The decision stems from a lawsuit Armenia filed against Azerbaijan more than three years ago when Yerevan accused Baku of violating the convention. Two years later, Azerbaijan filed a countersuit with identical claims.

However, the ICJ dismissed all objections from Azerbaijan while upholding some from Armenia, implying Azerbaijan’s claim will be limited in scope, namely that it will not examine events from the First Nagorno-Karabakh War or accusations regarding environmental damage in the region. The court did not say when the subsequent hearings in the rival cases would take place. A final ruling on the merits of the cases could take years.

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Armenian government cuts aid to Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians

As OC Media reported, the Armenian government has modified the social assistance program offered to displaced Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, reducing monthly assistance as well as the beneficiary groups listed and redirecting the resources to a housing assistance programme criticised by the beneficiaries.

According to the decision, the assistance salaries will be reduced from 50,000 AMD (122 EUR) to 40,000 AMD (97,6 EUR) as of April 2025. Aid will again be reduced to 30,000 AMD (73,2 EUR) starting in July, and lasting until at least December 2025.

This will affect Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians under 18, those receiving mandatory education, those older than 63, families which have lost their main providers, and people with disabilities, for a total of around 54,000 people. The aid programme was launched in October 2023, shortly after over 100,000 Armenians fled their homes after Nagorno-Karabakh surrendered to Azerbaijan following Azerbaijan’s last military offensive against the region.

Sources:
  •  BARSEGHYAN Arshaluys, OC Media, “Armenian government cuts aid to Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians”, https://oc-media.org/armenian-government-cuts-aid-to-nagorno-karabakh-armenians/

Photo: Shutterstock.com

Armenia’s ruling party suggests amendments to national anthem 

On November 28, the Armenian government approved draft amendments to the law “On the Anthem of the Republic of Armenia,” proposing changes to the anthem’s text and performance regulations. Deputy Minister of Education, Science, Culture, and Sport Daniel Danielyan presented the proposal, which was initiated by Parliamentary Speaker Alen Simonyan and MPs Sisak Gabrielyan and Taguhi Ghazaryan. The amendments aim to standardise the anthem’s official version and expand its mandatory performance requirements.

Under the proposed changes, singing the anthem—currently required in schools and universities—will also become mandatory in colleges and kindergartens. At sports events, the anthem will be performed during openings and closings and at award ceremonies. Additionally, the government will be authorised to establish a shortened version of the anthem based on the revised text.

According to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the changes are prompted by the lack of a unified standard for performing the anthem. “I have never seen the anthem performed the same way, as there is no uniform rhythm or tempo,” he said. The Prime Minister noted that the proposed changes do not involve changes to the text. “The quatrains are changed in certain places,” he explained.

Pashinyan had expressed dissatisfaction with Armenia’s coat of arms and national anthem several times, proposing a change to the anthem’s ending. In February of this year, in an interview with Public Radio of Armenia, Pashinyan highlighted the word “enemy” in the anthem’s lyrics. “This means that the perception of the enemy is a central part of our worldview. Whatever we do, our enemy is always present. And it doesn’t matter whether we acknowledge it or not,” he said.

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MP Hovik Aghazaryan expelled from ruling Civil Contract Party

On December 3, MP Hovik Aghazaryan was expelled from the ruling Civil Contract Party for allegedly leaking confidential information of state and party significance. The lawmaker, Aghazaryan, was one of the eight officials whom Pashinian told to resign in text messages sent on November 17. All of them except Aghazarian stepped down in the following days. The 64-year-old lawmaker, who is a veteran member of Pashinian’s party, also came under pressure from other senior Civil Contract figures and found himself under criminal investigation.

After a late-night meeting chaired by Pashinian, Civil Contract’s governing board said it decided to expel Aghazaryan from the party “due to leaks of confidential information of state and partisan importance as well as gross violations of public moral norms.” It did not elaborate.

Aghazaryan later announced that he was leaving the party’s parliamentary group while remaining a member of the National Assembly. “I do not want to put my colleagues in the Civil Contract faction in a difficult situation once again and have them discuss the issue of my removal from the faction,” he said. “I myself announce that I am leaving the Civil Contract faction with great regret.” Aghazaryan made it clear that he would not give up his parliament seat. He said he wants to show Armenians that he has not struck a deal with the authorities to avoid prosecution for influence peddling strongly denied by him.

The party’s parliamentary leader, Hayk Konjoryan, accused Aghazaryan of leaking sensitive information, including on “national security,” to the media. He said the information was discussed during Pashinyan’s meetings with his political allies held behind closed doors. Konjoryan said the leaks were exposed by data stored in Aghazaryan’s mobile phone, which Armenia’s Anti-Corruption Committee (ACC) confiscated late last month. Aghazaryan said this means ACC investigators shared that data with Pashinyan. He told reporters that his lawyer would demand an explanation from the law enforcement agency.

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Turkey in a fresh push for so so-called Zangezur corridor 

In November and December, top representatives of Ankara announced the need to implement the Zangezur corridor project. Turkish Minister of Transport and Infrastructure Abdulkadir Uraloglu told journalists on November 20 that the so-called Zangezur corridor is the most significant transport project between Azerbaijan and Turkey.

“We [i.e. Turkey] are continuing the processes in this direction with the Azerbaijani side in a rapid manner. Our Azerbaijani brothers will decide where the corridor will pass, whether it is the Armenian or Iranian side. Then, this corridor will come to Turkey via Nakhchivan. We have also completed our project in Turkey, held our tender, and will start construction work in the coming days and ensure a direct transport connection between Turkey and Azerbaijan,” said the Turkish official.

On December 7, the chair of the Turkish Parliament’s Foreign Relations Committee also called on Armenia to change its constitution and to open the “Zangezur corridor”. Oktay reiterated Turkey’s demand for the “Zangezur corridor,” describing it as crucial for ensuring “sustainable peace in the region”. Oktay expressed hope that Armenia would not “listen to false information coming from third parties and will implement the plan for peace and development.”

Meanwhile, Amenia’s deputy parliament speaker, Ruben Rubinyan, informed that Turkish and Armenian officials met in November to explore the possibility of restoring a rail link between their countries as part of an attempt to normalise bilateral relations.

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Azerbaijan

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A wave of repression continues in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani authorities detained at least 18 other activists and journalists in November and early December. Mete Turksoy, a member of the Azerbaijani pro-democracy group NIDA, has been imprisoned for 30 days on charges of hooliganism and disobeying the Police in Baku in early November. He was charged with petty hooliganism and disobeying the Police.

Araz Aliyev, a member of NIDA, told OC Media that Turksoy resided in Shaki, northwestern Azerbaijan, and was visiting his relatives in Baku. “He stayed in Baku at his relative’s house, and for this time, he stayed here a little bit more. It is a banal story, and he was arrested for nothing”, said Aliyev. Aliyev said that Turksoy was detained with his friend while on his way to the Ganjlik Metro Station. He said his friend tried to convince him to let the Police scan his bag with the X-ray machine.

He said that a police officer overheard their conversation and accused them of “not respecting” their work. After that, he said Turksoy apologised to the police officer, but the Police accused him of disobeying them.

On December 2, a confrontation occurred between Police and supporters of Ali Karimli, Chairman of the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA), outside the Nasimi District Court in Baku during his trial. Police detained 11 PFPA activists, including National Council member Vidadi Mirkamal. Maharramli reported that detained activists, including Rovshan Safarov, Rovshan Asvarov, Elmaddin Muradli, Ruslan Amirov, and Gulnara Rahimova, faced physical violence. While Rahimova was released, the remaining ten activists were later still held in police custody.

During the trial, Judge Babek Panahov found Karimli guilty of slander under Article 147.1 of the Criminal Code and imposed a fine of 1,500 manats (EUR 841). The opposing party’s lawyer had requested a six-month prison sentence. Karimli criticised the verdict, describing it as politically motivated and disconnected from the law. He maintained that his statements about Aydin Aliyev were factual and did not harm anyone’s honour or dignity.

Separately, the Nasimi District Court sentenced two detained activists to administrative arrests and fined four others. Rovshan Asvarov received a 15-day administrative arrest, while Mikayil Ismayilov was sentenced to 30 days. Activists Elchin Nurushov, Elchin Rzayev, Rovshan Rahimov, and Rovshan Safarov were fined 200 manats (EUR 112) each. Maharramli noted that several activists remained in custody at the Nasimi District Police Department’s 20th Police Station, with reports of injuries among them.

On December 3, human rights defender Rufat Safarov was detained in Azerbaijan, a week before US State Secretary Antony Blinken was to award him the Human Rights Defender of the Year award. That day, Safarov’s lawyer, Elchin Sadigov, posted on Facebook that Safarov was accused of hooliganism and fraud, which resulted in major damage. Sadigov later posted a message written by Safarov, explaining that he was planning to visit the US two days after receiving his visa to accept the Global Human Rights Defender Award from Blinken.

Just five days later, Meydan TV’s Baku staff — Aynur Gambarova, who goes by the penname Elgunash, Natig Javadli, Aytaj Ahmadova, also known as Tapdig, Aysel Umudova, Khayala Aghayeva, and freelancer Ramin Jabrailzada, also known as Deko — were detained on charges of smuggling foreign currency.

In addition to the six Meydan TV journalists, those detained in connection with the case were photographer Ahmad Mukhtar, Baku School of Journalism’s Deputy Director Ulvi Tahirov, animal rights activist Kamran Mammadli, journalist Rashad Ergun, Yunis Rzayev, who was detained with Aghayeva, and a friend of Umudova’s, Elnur Jabbarzada.

The six journalists confirmed to have been detained were held overnight at the police station, where they were allegedly interrogated without the presence of their lawyers. Mammad wrote on Facebook that several of the journalists — including Aynur Gambarova, Aytaj Tapdig and Khayala Aghayeva — had their homes raided and their personal items, such as laptops and cameras, confiscated. He also claimed that during the raid, Gambarova, who is disabled, was beaten. Jabrailzada also appeared to have been beaten, showing bruises around his eyes. He could not contact a lawyer for several hours after his arrest on charges.

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International observers will not be invited to municipal elections

No international observers will be invited for the municipal elections, according to the Chairman of the Central Election Commission (CEC), Mazahir Panahov, who announced this during a meeting of the Commission on December 2. The CEC chairman stated that municipal elections are a domestic matter: “Whoever applies, we will accept, but we will not issue invitations to observers.”

In Azerbaijan, there have been years when no international observers were invited specifically for municipal elections. However, international observers were invited to monitor the most recent municipal elections held in 2019, with over 10 international observers registered. These observers included central election commissions from the European Union and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries.

Elman Nasirov, a deputy from the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) in the Milli Majlis, told “Turan” that international interest in municipal elections is typically low: “It is natural for international organisations to carefully monitor presidential and parliamentary elections. However, even when they participated in observing municipal elections in certain years, their interest and involvement were not significant.”

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Final group sentenced in Azerbaijan’s infamous „Tartar Case“

The last group of military officials have been sentenced as part of the “Tartar Case”, which saw hundreds of victims accuse high-ranking military officials of torture, informed OC Media.

On October 31, Fuad Aghayev, a lawyer for the military corps and the legal assistant of General Hikmat Hasanov, who victims accused of supervising torture sessions, was sentenced to 13 years in prison. Ramil Ahmadov, assistant to the head of the military unit’s personnel department, was sentenced to nine years and six months in prison, as was Commander Fuad Akhundov, who headed the illegal interrogation facility. Warrant officers Javid Aghadadashov and Gurban Jumshudov were each sentenced to six years.

According to RFE/RL and other sources, around 450 Azerbaijani soldiers were tortured as part of a witch hunt to flush out alleged Armenian spies following armed clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2016. Human rights defenders have said at least nine people were killed in the process. Details of the case remained secret for several years after the spate of torture ended. The incident became known as the Tartar Case, taking the name from the district of Azerbaijan where the torture occurred.

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French and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry issue tit-for-tat summons of ambassadors

France summoned the Azerbaijani ambassador to France on November 19, following what the French foreign ministry called “unacceptable remarks made against France and Europeans by the Azerbaijani authorities” in the context of COP29, the foreign ministry said in a statement. “Azerbaijan’s hostile actions must stop,” it added.

The ministry did not specify which remarks it was referring to, but French Climate Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher cancelled her trip to COP29 after Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev accused France of “crimes” in its overseas territories in the Caribbean. On the same day, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Anne Boillon, the French Ambassador to Azerbaijan, had been summoned.

During the meeting, Azerbaijani officials expressed their disapproval of France’s actions, which they claimed were directed against Azerbaijan’s chairmanship of the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29). They criticised calls for a boycott of the event, France’s alleged encouragement of state leaders to abstain from attending, and the European Parliament’s resolution, which they argued unfairly targeted Azerbaijan’s chairmanship and climate efforts. Azerbaijani representatives deemed these actions baseless and accused France of orchestrating them.

Azerbaijan further condemned France for extensively arming Armenia and fostering militarism and revanchism, which they argued jeopardised the peace process and threatened the normalisation of relations in the region.

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Photo: Shutterstock.com

Azerbaijan arrests military expert Adalat Verdiyev, accused of disseminating information constituting a state secret

The head of the Civil Defense Headquarters under the Public Health and Reforms Center of the Ministry of Health, Adalat Verdiyev, has been arrested. According to the Prosecutor General’s Office, Verdiyev, a reserve officer and military expert, is accused of disseminating military information considered a state secret.

The statement from the Prosecutor General’s Office indicates that on November 22, a media visit to the former de facto Nagorno Karabakh was organised, in which Adalat Verdiyev participated as a military expert. It is alleged that during this visit, he recorded videos of strategic military locations, such as the deployment of Armed Forces and Border Troops, along with their coordinates and operational conditions, later sharing this footage on his social media accounts.

Based on the collected evidence, Adalat Verdiyev was charged with the articles of the Criminal Code of divulging state secrets and abuse of official authority leading to serious consequences and was remanded in custody by the decision of the Binagadi District Court, based on the investigator’s motion and the presentation of the prosecutor conducting the procedural management of the preliminary investigation. The preliminary investigation into the criminal case is ongoing, and those found guilty will be held accountable, and additional information will be provided to the public.

Source:

  • Apa.az, “Azerbaijan arrests military expert Adalat Verdiyev, accused of disseminating information constituting a state secret”, https://en.apa.az/incident/azerbaijan-arrests-military-expert-adalat-verdiyev-accused-of-disseminating-information-constituting-a-state-secret-454095

  • MAHMUDOV Kamran, Turan.az, “Security: Arrest of a Military Expert, Allegation of Smuggling 70 kg of Gold, and Reasons for Closed Land Borders”, https://turan.az/en/security/security-arrest-of-a-military-expert-allegation-of-smuggling-70-kg-of-gold-and-reasons-for-closed-land-borders-787508

Opposition figure arrested in Azerbaijan on extortion charges

On December 8, the head of the Institute of Political Governance, Azer Gasymly, was detained for 48 hours as a suspect under Article 182.2.3 of the Criminal Code (extortion by threats). His lawyer, Agil Laij, informed Turan about this. “There is a person who borrowed money and did not return it to Azer Gasymly. Gasymly sued him and won the case. Now this man is claiming that allegedly Azer Gasymly threatened and demanded money from him,” the lawyer said.

According to Laij, Gasymly denies the charges and believes his detention is related to his social and political activities. “In the morning, Azer took our son to football practice. Later, he called me and told me to pick up the boy. When I asked ‘why?’ he only said, ‘You know yourself’, and then the connection was cut off and then calls to his number did not reach him,” the wife of political scientist Samira Gasimli told Turan.

On November 22, A. Gasimli was not allowed to leave the country. Three days later, he was interrogated by the Baku police as a witness in several criminal cases. Gasimly is known as a vocal critic of the Azerbaijani government’s domestic and foreign policies.

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2024 United Nations climate change conference held in Azerbaijan

Between November 11 and 22, 2024 the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) was held in Baku. The conference concluded with an agreement on plans for finance to mitigate the effects of climate change and help developing nations transition to more sustainable energy sources. Rules and a UN registry were agreed to facilitate and record international trading of carbon credits.

According to some commentators, the result of the conference was marred by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The Azerbaijani leader opened the global climate conference with a rant against Western “hypocrisy.” Two days later, he tore into France and the Netherlands for what he described as “repression” and ongoing colonial rule. Within hours, France’s top climate official cancelled her trip to Baku.

As Politico wrote, the direct attacks — highly unusual in the three-decade history of the United Nations climate talks — have left senior foreign affairs officials questioning whether the petrostate President is committed to the delicate dance of getting 200 countries to find consensus.

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Georgia

Photo: Shutterstock.com

International reactions to developments in Georgia

Suspicions of election fraud, U-turn on European integration and the Georgian government’s harsh response to mass protests have provoked a sharp reaction in the West. The response has ranged from verbal condemnations and expressions of concern to concrete actions against Georgia and individual sanctions against government and security officials.

On December 9, Robin Dunnigan, the US Ambassador to Georgia, met with Levan Ioseliani, the Georgian Ombudsman, to discuss the role of the public defender’s office in protecting Georgians’ rights. The US Embassy issued a statement demanding accountability for those responsible for violence and calling for the immediate release of detained protesters. The statement emphasised that those responsible for the brutal and unjustified violence, including against demonstrators, media representatives, and members of the opposition, must be held accountable, and those detained for exercising their right to assembly and expression must be released.

On December 10, Anitta Hipper, the EU’s Lead Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, issued a statement condemning the Georgian government’s response to the ongoing pro-EU protests. The EU denounced the “repressive actions” against protesters, media representatives, and opposition figures, demanding the immediate release of detainees and an end to political persecution.

On December 12, international media freedom, journalists and human rights organisations issued a letter addressed to the leaders of the EU institutions, asking them to act in response to the violence by the Georgian authorities against media representatives. The letter is addressed to the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Council, António Costa, President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas.

The organisations expressed “deep concern” about the violence on the streets of Tbilisi “deliberately targeting journalists,” noting that the scale of the crackdown since November 28 is “unprecedented” and calling on EU leaders “to use all its influence to bring a rapid end to the repression of journalists in Georgia.”

On December 11, 35 Council of Europe (CoE) member states made a statement at the CoE Committee of Ministers condemning the police violence and saying, “We stand with the Georgian people in support of the and their choice for a European future.” In a related development, 31 countries spoke up as a CoE Group of Friends for the Safety of Journalism and Media Freedom demanded the Georgian authorities “put an end” to “repression” against peaceful demonstrators and journalists.

Regarding practical steps against Georgia Mathew Miller, the US State Department Spokesperson stated on November 30 that the US suspended the Strategic Partnership with Georgia.

On December 12, Ambassador Ward announced that the UK restricted bilateral cooperation between the United Kingdom and Georgia. “This means we are suspending programmatic support for the Georgian government, such as funding for public administration reform and the Peace Fund of the State Ministry for Reconciliation and Civic Equality. We are also restricting military cooperation. For instance, we will no longer assist Georgia’s Ministry of Defense in building its cybersecurity operations centre,” the Ambassador said. Political engagements are similarly affected, with the UK suspending the Wardrop Strategic Dialogue under the current circumstances.

On December 7, the European Commission’s Seventh Report to the European Parliament and the Council under the Visa Suspension Mechanism raised concerns about Georgia’s compliance with visa liberalisation benchmarks. The report highlighted critical areas where Georgia must take urgent action to avoid activating the visa suspension mechanism for certain categories of individuals.

The Commission notes a lack of progress in Georgia’s alignment of its visa policy with the EU. It highlights the divergence caused by Georgia’s visa waiver agreement with China, signed in April 2024, which exacerbates the misalignment. Georgia asserts that its lack of alignment poses no risk to the EU due to the absence of a shared land border. However, the Commission stresses that visa policy alignment is a fundamental objective for countries aspiring to EU membership and expects Georgia to make progress in this area.

The report is particularly critical of legislation adopted during the reporting period, including the “On Transparency of Foreign Influence” law (May 2024) and the “Family Values and Protection of Minors” legislative package (September 2024). These laws are viewed as undermining human rights, including freedoms of association, expression, and privacy.

Three Baltic states were the first to take the initiative on the level of targeted individual sanction. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have imposed travel restrictions on Georgian officials, including Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili and Interior Minister Vakhtang Gomelauri, for cracking down on protesters on December 2. Both Lithuania and Estonia sanctioned 11 officials, including Georgian Dream founder and honorary chair Bidzina Ivanishvili, Interior Minister Vakhtang Gomelauri, and Gomelauri’s four deputies, Shalva Bedoidze, Giorgi Butkhuzi, Aleksandre Darakhvelidze, and Ioseb Chelidze. They also sanctioned Zviad “Khareba” Kharazishvili, the head of the Special Tasks Department, the agency responsible for the riot police, and his deputies, Mileri Lagazauri and Mirza Kezevadze.

Latvia sanctioned 13 Georgian nationals indefinitely but, unlike Estonia and Lithuania, has not published a list of names.

Later, on December 12, the US Department of State announced additional measures under the Visa Restriction Policy prohibiting the issuance of visas to those responsible for or complicit in undermining democracy in Georgia. The action affects approximately twenty individuals, including those serving as government ministers and parliamentarians, law enforcement and security officials, and private citizens. The individuals subject to visa restrictions have not been named by the State Department.

Regarding possible future developments, Zoltán Kovács, Hungary’s Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Relations, revealed on Twitter (X) that Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó had pledged to veto sanctions against Georgia’s interior minister and police chiefs, describing the proposal as “nonsensical and unjustified.” Szijjártó stated, “We oppose adding Georgian officials to any sanctions list. If such a suggestion arises, Hungary will block it—this is certain.”

Meanwhile, the German government is planning sanctions against members of the Georgian leadership with a “coalition of the willing” in the EU; the plan is said to have been coordinated with France and Poland, Spiegel has reported. The matter is to be taken on by the block’s foreign ministers at the Foreign Affairs Council to be held on Monday, December 16.

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Georgian government made an U-turn on EU integration

On November 28, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze stated that Georgia is suspending talks on its bid to join the European Union for four years. Kobakhidze said that while the country will pursue its bid to join the EU, “it will not put the issue of opening negotiations with the European Union on the agenda until the end of 2028.” “Additionally, we are rejecting any budgetary grants from the European Union until the end of 2028,” he added.

Thousands of protesters poured into the streets following Kobakhidze’s announcement, rallying outside the parliament building in Tbilisi and staging demonstrations in other cities. Kobakhidzes’s statement followed the resolution adopted on the same day by the European Parliament, claiming that recent parliamentary elections in Georgia were neither free nor fair. MEPs voted by a margin of 444-72 in favour of a motion to declare the parliamentary election results in Georgia invalid, arguing they “do not serve as a reliable representation of the will of the Georgian people.” It calls for the election to be re-run within a year under international supervision.

On December 1, the Georgian Foreign Ministry stated on X/Twitter that the Georgian government’s refusal to negotiate with the EU until 2028 does not mean suspending the integration: “The decision of the Georgian government not to raise the issue of negotiations with the EU until 2028 and to decline EU grant budget support does not mean suspension of Georgia’s European integration process. The given statement followed a week of mass protests in the capital and other cities around the whole country.

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Georgian Dream elects new President of Georgia

Former footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili was elected President of Georgia on December 14. According to Civil.ge, Kavelashvili secured the position after garnering 224 votes from the college comprising the all-GD legislature and local councillors. The session took place against the backdrop of public protests outside the Parliament building, during which demonstrators labelled the process illegitimate and “a farce.”

According to the CEC, Kavelashvili received 224 votes from the 225 representatives that participated in the vote out of a total 300-member electoral college, with most of the remaining members, representing the opposition, boycotting the process and not participating at all.

At least three members of the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia—the government-in-exile for Abkhazia — including its former chair, Temur Mzhavia—boycotted the session. Another council member, Zurab Jguburia, refused to participate in the vote from the outset, stating that he could not support a candidate with a “Russian mentality.” Meanwhile, Ada Marshania, the Council’s most prominent member, expressed her dissatisfaction with the candidate as she cast her ballot in parliament, declaring that she was spoiling her vote.

Kavelashvili was the sole candidate nominated by the ruling Georgian Dream party on November 27. He entered politics as an MP for Georgian Dream in 2016 and was among those with the sharpest words for Georgia’s Western partners over their criticism of the ruling party’s anti-democratic steps and lack of institutional reforms. Kavelashvili was also among the authors of Georgia’s Foreign Agent Law. In 2022, Kavelashvili formally departed Georgian Dream to co-found the People’s Power party alongside others.

Shortly after his nomination, Kavelashvili, a former player for the Russian Spartak-Alania Vladikavkaz and English Manchester City football clubs, was criticised as a man “without a diploma,” highlighting his lack of higher education.

Although a lack of a higher education degree does not disqualify a candidate from running for President in Georgia, many recalled his inability in 2015 to run for the Georgian Football Federation’s presidency for this very reason. The President’s inauguration is scheduled for December 29.

Sources:
  • KINCHA Shota, OC Media, „Georgian Dream elects ex-footballer and Ivanishvili loyalist as new president”, https://oc-media.org/georgian-dream-elects-ex-footballer-and-ivanishvili-loyalist-as-new-president/
  • Civil.ge, “Mikheil Kavelashvili Elected as President by College of GD MPs and Local Councilors”, https://civil.ge/archives/644791
Georgia’s President will not step down until “illegitimate” election re-run

Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili said on November 30 that she will not leave office when her term ends because the parliament is “illegitimate”, while the Prime Minister warned against a “revolution” amid continuing pro-European Union protests.

“We are confronting today the stolen elections, the illegitimate parliament, and an illegitimate parliament cannot elect anything other than an illegitimate government and an illegitimate president,” Zurabishvili told FRANCE 24 shortly after her address. “My mandate ends when the new legitimate President will be elected. That depends on new elections, and it’s the main demand of people on the streets,” she added.

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A new wave of protests has erupted in Georgia amid increasing police brutality

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s announcement on November 28 that European integration would be suspended drove tens of thousands of demonstrators to the streets of the capital city that evening. In the following days, the protests spread to other cities and have continued with alternating high intensity for over two weeks. Intensifying anti-government protests prompted authorities to respond with the escalating use of force and repression.

Over 450 protesters have been detained by December 13. According to local civil society organisations and the Public Defender’s Office, the vast majority of detainees have experienced violence at the hands of the Police. Many detained protesters testified about intense beatings and torture by riot police while they were already detained in police vans. “We are witnessing systematic and mass acts of torture committed against civilian population,” a prominent human rights group, the Georgian Young Lawyers Association, said in a statement.

In another episode of escalating repression in Georgia, on December 7, the “titushki” (government-paid thugs) violently attacked TV Pirveli journalist Maka Chikhladze and a cameraman Giorgi Shetsiruli and raided the office of the opposition Coalition for Change political alliance, beating at least two of its members – Koba Khabazi and Data Petridis, wrote Civil.ge.

The attacks happened at around 10:00 pm on December 7, just as the protest rally against GD’s U-turn on the EU accession process and growing repressions were taking place around the corner on Rustaveli Avenue. The live footage broadcast by Pirveli TV showed the titushki attack on the channel’s crew, which arrived at Besiki Street after receiving information about beatings of people by titushki in the area.

Meanwhile, Georgian Police have conducted raids of the offices of opposition groups as well as the homes of individual protest organisers as the government’s crackdown on dissent intensifies. On December 4, Police raided the joint offices of the opposition Droa and Girchi — More Freedom parties. They also raided the office of the opposition Akhali party. All three are members of the Coalition for Change opposition grouping.

During the raids, Police arrested Nika Gvaramia, one of the leaders of the Coalition for Change. Gela Khasaia, another member of the Coalition for Change, was also detained. Several other opposition politicians were detained under different pretexts, including Aleko Elisashvili (Strong Georgia), and Zurab Datunashvili (Coalition for Change). Vepkhia Kasradze and Vaso Kadzelishvili, two members of the opposition Strong Georgia group, were later detained as well. Police also raided the offices of the opposition Unity — National Movement’s youth wing and targeted several protest organisers.

Nancy Woland and Ilia Ghlonti, the co-founders of Daitove, had their homes searched, while Ghlonti was later detained. Daitove is a Facebook group launched during the foreign agent law protests used to allow people from outside of Tbilisi to participate in the protests. Zviad Tsetskhladze, the founder of Dapioni, another group helping organise the protests, was also detained.

On December 13, Georgia’s parliament passed a law forbidding protesters to cover their faces and banning fireworks and lasers from demonstrations following clashes between Police and civilians at pro-EU protests. The law, which imposes a fine of 2,000 GEL (677 EUR) for offenders, was passed unanimously. Lawmakers also approved increases in fines for defacing buildings and blocking traffic. Convictions for organising roadblocks carrying fines of up to 15,000 GEL (5,080 EUR).

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Georgia’s prominent opposition TV channel “Mtavari” faces closure threat

One of Georgia’s most popular independent TV stations, Mtavari Arkhi, faces the threat of closure. On December 11, its CEO, Giorgi Gabunia, claimed that Zaza Okuashvili, one of the founders and owners of the opposition channel, is “deliberately driving the station toward closure by taking concrete steps,” writes JAM News. “Zaza Okuashvili has chosen to do what the authorities and ruling party leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, desire — shut down Mtavari Arkhi,” Gabunia stated during a live broadcast, standing alongside other station employees.

Gabunia claimed that Okuashvili appointed his trusted associate, Gogi Kurdadze, several months ago as the channel’s director, who is deliberately hindering its operations by blocking financial transactions and refusing to sign vital contracts. Businessman Zaza Okuashvili, the co-owner of the opposition-leaning Georgian TV channel Mtavari Arkhi, later denied allegations by Giorgi Gabunia, the channel’s Director General, that he had decided to shut down the outlet, accusing him of slander.

In a statement published by Interpressnews, Okuashvili described Gabunia’s accusations as “baseless” and linked them to an alleged plan by Nika Gvaramia, the channel’s former Director General and a co-founder of the opposition Akhali party, now a part of the Coalition for Change opposition that won parliamentary seats in the October 26 general elections.

Okuashvili further accused Gvaramia and Gabunia of “mismanaging the channel, driving it into bankruptcy, and exploiting it for personal financial gain”. The businessman accused them of using the platform as an “international money laundering machine” while “neglecting the needs of employees and the channel itself”. Okuashvili also dismissed Gabunia’s allegations of his ties with Bidzina Ivanishvili, the Honorary Chair and founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party, calling them “comical and devoid of logic” and noting that he was engaged in several international legal disputes against Ivanishvili.

Mtavari Arkhi was founded in September 2019 by a group of journalists who left the prominent Rustavi 2 TV channel after it came under the control of pro-government businessmen following a legal battle.

Sources:

  • JAM News, “Georgia’s prominent opposition TV channel “Mtavari” faces closure threat”, https://jam-news.net/georgian-broadcaster-mtavari-arkhi-at-risk-of-closure/

  • Agenda.ge, Businessman, opposition-leaning channel leadership trade allegations over media’s potential shutdown, https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/42090#gsc.tab=0

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