WEBINAR: Turkey’s Influence in the Western Balkans

On December 4, 2024, Strategic Analysis organized the eight online webinar this year with our Young Leaders‘ Programme members. The discussion focused on Turkey’s Influence in the Western Balkans.

The relationship between Turkey and the Western Balkans dates back over five centuries to the Ottoman Empire, during which parts of the region were integral components of the empire. This shared history has left deep cultural, religious, and political ties that continue to shape Turkey’s engagement in the region today.

Turkey remains one of the most influential actors in the Western Balkans. Countries where Islam holds a significant presence, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Albania, maintain particularly close relationships with Turkey. However, Turkey’s influence extends beyond religious commonalities; for instance, Serbia, where Islam is not the dominant religion, is a major recipient of Turkish investments, especially in infrastructure and trade.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has cultivated strong personal ties with leaders in the region, particularly Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. These relationships have bolstered economic cooperation, with Serbia receiving some of the largest Turkish investments in the region. Following the breakup of Yugoslavia, Western Balkan countries began forging individual relationships with Turkey, which played a role in stabilization efforts as a NATO member. Turkey participated in SFOR (Stabilization Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina) and KFOR (Kosovo Force), contributing to post-conflict peacebuilding.

Economic ties between Turkey and the Western Balkans have grown, though they are limited by Turkey’s ongoing economic crisis. Significant investments in earlier years focused on sectors such as road construction and connectivity, particularly in Bosnia and the Sandžak region of Serbia. Banking and trade relations remain robust, with Turkish-owned banks and imports of food, electronics, and consumer goods playing a vital role.

Cultural connections between Turkey and the Western Balkans remain strong, supported by geographical proximity. Turkey views the region as a foreign policy priority, with initiatives including the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TİKA), which funds the restoration of Ottoman-era monuments such as mosques in Sandžak and Skopje. Turkey has also supported religious communities and Turkic minorities in North Macedonia, Kosovo, and Albania.

Education and media are key tools of Turkish influence. In the 1990s and early 2000s, schools affiliated with the Gülen movement were prominent, offering high-quality private education attended by future regional leaders like Zoran Zaev. Following the failed coup attempt in Turkey in 2016, Ankara pressured Western Balkan countries to close Gülen-affiliated institutions, replacing them with state-sponsored Maarif schools.

Turkish-language education, student mobility programs, and cultural exports, such as Turkish soap operas, have further deepened Turkey’s soft power in the region. The inauguration of the largest mosque in the Balkans in Tirana during Erdoğan’s visit underscores Turkey’s continued support for religious and cultural initiatives.

In recent years, Turkey has expanded its security and defense cooperation with Western Balkan countries. This includes the training of cadets at Turkish military academies, defense technology sales (e.g., Bayraktar drones to Albania), and joint initiatives to strengthen regional stability.

Despite its significant presence, Turkey faces challenges in maintaining its influence. Its economic crisis has limited new investments, and its ambitions for EU membership have been sidelined. Additionally, Turkey’s assertive foreign policy and promotion of pan-Turkic and pan-Islamic narratives have drawn criticism from some quarters.

Nonetheless, Turkey’s multifaceted engagement—spanning politics, economics, culture, religion, and security—continues to position it as a key player in the Western Balkans, with a lasting impact on the region’s development and international alignments.