Strategic Analysis Balkan Brief

First half of November 2024

Petra Bošková, Anna Gúliková, Simona Škríbová, Kristína Piknová, Vanesa Opšenáková, Lýdia Chobotová, Kristína Šebová

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Albania
A Small Group of Migrants Transferred from Italy to Albania Based on Their Mutual Deal

During this year, there has been a migration deal made between Albania and Italy, according to which 36,000 migrants should be disembarked at the Albanian port of Shengjin per year. These persons are then likely sent to the Gjader camp. This deal is meant to divert migrants from the EU country (Italy) to a non-EU country (Albania). At the same time, the facilities in Shengjin and Gjader, ensuring this system works, are staffed by Italian personnel and operate under Italian jurisdiction. A project by the EU creates two reception centers to mainly salvage Italian problems with an overwhelming number of migrants.

Tirana agreed to accommodate up to 3,000 migrants at one time, and the first group of migrants from Italy was sent in October. However, they stayed in Albania only for a couple of days, as their legal status was questioned, because the deal limits that the migrants must be from the countries deemed as safe. The group came from Egypt and Bangladesh, which are proclaimed as safe by the Italian government, meaning that the migrants are believed to be easily repatriated. Although, according to the recent ruling of the European Court of Justice, no country outside the EU can be declared safe as long as there is lasting potential for danger, therefore Albania rejected these persons.

The system of the deal stands on the selected migrants, who are picked up at sea to be taken to Albania, where they have to undergo an asylum request examination within 28 days. In Italy, this whole process takes a couple of months at this moment. In both results of requests, persons will be taken to Italy, and while the accepted ones will be invited to stay, the denied ones will be put in holding centres until the repatriation. Easing up the processing centres in Italy will prevent overcrowding and, therefore, inhumane conditions for migrants. There is also a smaller chance for the persons to vanish and disperse around Europe, as Albania is not an EU country yet.

At this point, the whole plan is considered highly controversial due to the first fiasco, which came to the surface after the recognition of the stance of the European Court of Justice. It is believed that the Italian PM and her government pushed the deal to discourage migrant arrivals, and it is being watched by other European leaders as well. The deal itself has already cost Italy huge financial and political investment, so it is very possible Rome would try as hard as possible to make it work. For Albania, this plan poses a step closer to membership in the EU, as it secures Italy’s support to become an EU member. Tirana is, therefore, willing to help the EU with one of its most intractable problems in recent years.

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Bosnia and Herzegovina
BiH Officials Reacting to US Presidential Elections

On November 6 US voters elected its new President for the cycle 2025-2029. The Republican candidate,  Donald Trump, has won the presidential run against the Democrats’ candidate Kamala Harris. These elections will influence the geopolitical situation in the world, and Balkan states, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, won´t be an exception.

Bosnian presidency members Milorad Dodik, Dragan Čović, and Željko Komšić have already reacted to the election results.

Dragan Čović, chairman of the Bosnian Parliament, congratulated newly elected US president Donald Trump. In his congratulations, he pointed to the Dayton Agreement along with the Washington Agreement and expressed concerns about Croatian political representation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He also expressed his desire for pro-European Bosnia and Herzegovina and BIH in NATO.

Milorad Dodik, President of the Republika Srpska, threw a party to celebrate Trump’s victory, although it was at the time when he was in office when sanctions were proposed against Dodik in 2017. He shared his whole statement on social media platform X, saying: “In a changing world where individuals and countries are often expected to forget their roots, I see in Trump’s leadership the possibility of a different, fairer approach that does not impose ideas that Americans themselves do not support in their own homes…” Firstly he organized a toast in front of the Palace of the President in Banja Luka. He held a celebratory speech in a typical Trump supporter MAGA baseball red cap. Then a celebration took place since the US Embassy did not organize one as Dodik said.

Leader of the Democratic Front, Željko Komšic, also briefly congratulated Trump on his victory and emphasized his vision of the USA as the most important foreign partner for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

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Photo: Shutterstock.com

Montenegro
Secret Service to Investigate Alleged Assassination Plot on President Milatović

 On November 14, the President´s cabinet and the Police Directorate received information that the assassination of President Jakov Milatović was supposedly being prepared from another Balkan country. The National Security Agency will now check whether the information is accurate.

The cabinet and the Police Directorate have received information from sources abroad that a retired high-ranking officer of a former army in the Balkans is allegedly behind the assassination plans, which are to be executed by a Montenegrin citizen. Inside sources from the Secret Service have told the Vijesti newspaper that the information came from two interconnected sources from two Western Balkan countries. The assassination´s alleged motive is to destabilize Montenegro. However, the Police Directorate claims that the President´s life and security are not at risk, although Milatović´s security measures have been increased just in case.

It is now the job of the Secret Service to determine whether the allegations are true, as the Police Directorate highlighted that previously the Secret Service “had information about possible threats to other protected persons, which after checks turned out to be incorrect.” The previous allegations were regarding former president and prime minister Milo Djukanović, which were deemed incorrect earlier this year.

 

Sources:
  • Mihailo Jovovic & Aljoša Turović, Vijesti, “ANB is checking whether the assassination of Milatović is being prepared”, https://en.vijesti.me/news-b/politika/732454/anb-is-checking-whether-the-assassination-of-milatovic-is-being-prepared
  • Sarajevo Times, “An Assassination Attempt on the President of Montenegro is being prepared?”, https://sarajevotimes.com/an-assassination-attempt-on-the-president-of-montenegro-is-being-prepared/
  • Telegrafi, “The Montenegrin secret service received information that the assassination of the president was being prepared”, https://telegrafi.com/en/the-Montenegrin-secret-service-received-information-that-the-assassination-of-the-president-was-being-prepared/
Kosovo
Establishing the CSM is Key to Kosovo’s Further Integration, States the Progress Report

The first half of November was full of debate on the CSM (Community of Serb Municipalities). It is an autonomous grouping of Serbian municipalities in Kosovo, first agreed in 2013 as part of the Brussels Agreement between Kosovo and Serbia, which was brokered by the European Union. The agreement stipulated that the CSM would have a degree of self-government to ensure better political representation and protection of the rights of Serbs living in Kosovo.

In the context of the CSM, the European Commission has published a progress report assessing progress in the implementation of important international agreements. The progress report also stressed the need for Kosovo to establish a CSM. The statute for the establishment of the CSM was to be developed based on the 2013 and 2015 agreements. In October 2023, the European Union, with the support of Member States and partners, presented a draft statute for the establishment of the CSM. This status has been accepted by both Kosovo and Serbia. In December 2023, the European Council Conclusions underlined the readiness of both sides to accept this proposal, which was presented by the EU Special Envoy. This document has been formally endorsed by all 27 EU Member States. The EU has called on Kosovo to establish a CSM based on this status.

Kosovo government spokesman Perparim Kryeziu commented on the CSM issue as follows: “We remind that the EU’s draft statute does not bear the signature of either EU High Representative Josep Borrell or envoy Miroslav Lajcak, let alone Prime Minister Albin Kurti. The status of the draft statute is a non-paper, one of several proposals put forward over the years.“ He added that the draft statute is an unsigned document, so it does not represent an official policy or commitment.

However, according to analyst Afrim Kasoli, it seems that the Kosovo government is looking for ways not to implement the CSM agreement, although sending the draft CSM status to the Constitutional Court was a condition for Kosovo’s membership in the Council of Europe. According to the Kosovo Online source, Kasoli said that without fulfilling the preconditions in the progress report, there is no way that EU integration will be successful. Commenting on the problems regarding the establishment of the CSM, Peter Stano regretted the stagnation in the establishment of the CSM by the draft European Statute.

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Photo: Shutterstock.com

Serbia
Deadly Roof Collapse at a Railway Station in Novi Sad Sparks Nationwide Protests in Serbia

On November 1, 2024, a catastrophic collapse of an outside roof at the Novi Sad railway station in northern Serbia claimed 14 lives and injured over 30 people, significantly shaking public trust in infrastructure oversight in Serbia. The disaster, described by Prime Minister Milos Vučević as one of the most challenging days in the city’s post-war history, caused a wave of protests, with thousands of demonstrators in Novi Sad and other cities denouncing government negligence and demanding accountability. The Novi Sad train station was only recently renovated to upgrade Serbia’s railway infrastructure, financed under China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, there are conflicting reports on whether the collapsed roof had been included in these reparations.

Protesters across the entire country took to the streets to criticize the government’s oversight of public projects, denounce its perceived tolerance of corruption, and demand lead political representatives, such as President Aleksandar Vučić or Prime Minister Miloš Vučević to take responsibility. The protests escalated in intensity on November 5 and 6, when clashes broke out in Novi Sad and resulted in several arrests of protesters​​.

Multiple Serbian officials pledged to take action and draw consequences in response to the disaster and subsequent public outrage. Prime Minister Miloš Vučević promised to promptly launch a full investigation. At the same time, President Aleksandar Vučić said that the matter would be thoroughly looked into and promised that those responsible for the collapse “will be punished”. Even though Goran Vesić, the Serbian Minister of Construction, Transport and Infrastructure, decided to resign, citing “moral reasons” as the rationale behind his decision, he denied any responsibility for the disaster. “I cannot accept the blame for the death of 14 people because neither I nor the people who work with me have an iota of responsibility for the tragedy that happened,” claimed Vesić.

So far, no one has been detained concerning the station tragedy, and the investigation’s status still remains unknown to the public. However, Novi Sad’s Higher Prosecution Office provided some information on November 13, saying that it had questioned 66 people and planned to question more. Meanwhile, the protests in Novi Sad and other cities continue. The protesters’ main goals are as it appears to achieve the publication of all contracts related to the station’s rebuilding that are now classified as confidential, surveillance of all infrastructure projects during the last decade and the resignation of Prime Minister Vučević as well as Novi Sad Mayor Milan Đurić.

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North Macedonia
North Macedonia and Turkey Boost Economic Cooperation

North Macedonia has given a clear “green light” for new economic cooperation with Turkey and, at the same time has started working intensively to attract Turkish investors to the country. Hristijan Mickoski, Prime Minister of North Macedonia, during a business forum in Skopje, which was held on November 14, organized by the Macedonian-Turkish Chamber of Commerce (MATTO), called on Turkish companies to start investing and being more actively involved in the implementation of major projects in the country.

Already today, many Turkish companies employ over 10,000 people in North Macedonia, thus accounting for a significant part of the total foreign investment. According to Aydoğan Ademoski, President of MATTO, it is Turkish investment that accounts for almost four-tenths of all foreign investment in the country, underlining its importance within the national economy. In this context, the government is trying to introduce reforms such as reducing bureaucratic obstacles or speeding up the issuance of work permits, which understandably creates room for faster establishment of business partnerships.

Trade between Northern Macedonia and Turkey currently amounts to approximately USD 1 billion annually. However, both countries aim to double this volume through a revision of the current free trade agreement, which could also potentially attract investors in strategic sectors, including energy and infrastructure. Fatih Ulusoy, Turkey’s ambassador, stressed that Turkey’s aim is not only to increase trade but also to support its long-standing partner in its economic growth and thus strengthen its regional position. In this context, Turkey stressed that it is also ready to step up cooperation in the field of the defence industry to strengthen regional security in the Western Balkans.

In the end, MATTO sought to point out that Turkish companies have a long history of bringing high-quality products and services to the country, which increases their competitiveness in the local market. It is already evident that the two countries are planning a more intensive dialogue within the framework of this cooperation, especially in the framework of the upcoming visit of Ömer Bolat, Turkish Trade Minister Ömer, to Skopje.

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