IN FOCUS: Ukraine & Moldova Brief

Review of October 2024

Petra Bošková, Lýdia Chobotová, Anna Gúliková, Sára Gregová

UKRAINE

Photo: Shutterstock.com

How can US presidential election results affect the war in Ukraine? 

As President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine embarked on a crucial diplomatic mission to the United States on September 20, his main goal was to renew urgency among allies regarding Kyiv’s situation as the war with Russia heads into another harsh winter.

After a whirlwind week, including a meeting with former President Donald J. Trump in New York, he was set to return to Kyiv with “more questions than answers about the near future” of Ukraine’s military efforts, according to Mikhail Minakov of the Kennan Institute.

Some analysts warn that a Trump presidency would be detrimental to Ukraine. During his time in office, Trump fostered close ties with Moscow and occasionally expressed admiration for Vladimir Putin. He has also faced ongoing allegations regarding Kremlin interference in the 2016 election that brought him to power.

Trump claims he could broker an “exciting” peace deal to end the war “in 24 hours” but has provided few details. His running mate, JD Vance, stated that the plan could involve creating a demilitarised zone that would require Ukraine to give up control of Russian-occupied regions like Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Crimea, which Ukrainians oppose. Vance also suggested that Russia might secure a guarantee that Ukraine won’t join NATO, a significant concern for Kyiv, which seeks NATO membership to deter future invasions. Analysts speculate that Trump could lift Biden-era sanctions on Russia to make the deal more attractive.

Lev Zinchenko from the European Policy Centre told Al Jazeera that this scenario would be unacceptable for Ukraine, likely leading to a frozen conflict and further Russian aggression. Some observers think Kyiv may have little say, as Trump and many Republicans oppose critical US military aid to Ukraine, arguing that the Biden administration’s support does not serve American interests. Nonetheless, some analysts see a Trump presidency as a potential way to break the deadlock, as a peace deal—however flawed—could prevent Kyiv from looking defeated and make the US a guarantor of the agreement.

Harris has not proposed an immediate end to the war but has strongly supported Kyiv and called for increased Western military aid. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion, the US has provided over $64 billion in assistance. In her September debate with Trump, she cautioned that a Russian victory would threaten all of Europe.

The Biden administration vetoed Ukraine’s NATO membership and restricted US weapons use against Russian targets to avoid escalation. After Zelenskyy presented his victory plan in October, the White House seemed hesitant, likely due to upcoming elections.

Analysts predict Biden will lift the veto if Harris wins, potentially increasing support for Ukraine, although Republican resistance may slow this. The International Crisis Group suggested that Harris could take a more proactive approach than Biden in ending the conflict through negotiations or heightened support for Kyiv.



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​​North Korean troops near the Russian border with Ukraine

North Korean military troops travelled to Russia for“joint military training”, however, intelligence reports claim that some of the troops are moving to the Kursk region, and some have possibly already crossed into Ukraine.

After weeks of South Korean Intelligence Service warnings that North Korea was preparing to send thousands of troops to Russia. Both Russia and North Korea dismissed the allegations, claiming that both countries are cooperating withing the international law and their joint security pact, which was signed this June, claiming the North Korean troops are coming to Russia for a regular joint military exercise. However, on October 28, South Korea, NATO, and the Pentagon all confirmed that North Korean troops had entered Russia, a number of troops ranging around 10,000 and some of them were already moving to the Kursk region, where Ukraine attacked Russia in late August of this year and is occupying parts of the region.

Western officials warn this move means a further escalation of the conflict but proves that Russia is becoming more desperate as “over 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Putin’s war, and he is unable to sustain his assault on Ukraine without foreign support,” said NATO Secretary-General Rutte. Pentagon warned they fear the North Korean troops will be used in combat against Ukrainian forces, even on Ukrainian territory. Zelenskyy reacted that “the conclusion is clear: this war is becoming internationalised, extending beyond two countries,” claiming the North Korean troops will enter combat zones on November 3, according to Ukrainian intelligence. The reports on whether the North Korean soldiers have already entered Ukraine are varying – The Pentagon officially disclosed that they expect their entry within several weeks, however, an undisclosed Ukrainian official claimed they are within 50 kilometres from the border, and CNN reported their sources confirmed that a small number of North Korean troops have already crossed the border to Ukraine.

According to intercepted Russian transmission channels, Russian soldiers talk about their North Korean counterparts disdainfully and are not happy about having to deal with them, as there is a significant language barrier. The South Korean Intelligence Service claims that they have learned that the North Korean soldiers are being taught Russian, allegedly around 100 basic military words like “fire” and “in position, which can be viewed as confirmation that the North Korean troops are indeed preparing to join Russian military in Ukraine and in Kursk region.

Sources:
  • Natasha Bertrand, CNN, “Small number of North Korean troops are already inside Ukraine, officials say”, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/29/politics/north-korean-troops-ukraine/index.html
  • The Guardian, “Russia to deploy 10,000 North Korean troops against Ukraine within ‘weeks’, Pentagon says”, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/29/russia-north-korean-troops-ukraine-war
  • Kyiv Independent, “North Korean soldiers 50 km from Ukraine’s border, including special forces, FT reports”, https://kyivindependent.com/north-korean-soldiers-50-km-from-ukraines-border-ft/
  • Michael Scollon, Radio Free Europe, “North Korean Troops Are ‚Fair Game‘ In Russia’s War Against Ukraine”, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-north-korea-ukraine-war-soldiers/33177856.html
Problems with Ukrainian mobilisation as the Russian offensive becomes unbearable for current numbers

During the past couple of months, there have been issues with the recruitment of new military personnel into the Ukrainian army. At the beginning of the year 2024, major changes were made within the recruitment process itself, which were supposed to simplify certain procedures. This was accompanied by controversial political debates as it was obvious that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were missing the necessary manpower to slow the Russian offensive. According to the Ukrainian constitution, after imposing martial law in February 2022, the first wave of general mobilisation was announced, and the operational reserve – personnel with combat experience was carried out. Along with this there was and still is a ban on men between 18 and 60 leaving the country.

Since then, constant mobilisation measures have been carried out to replace the dead and seriously wounded. However, at the end of 2023, difficulties with recruitment began when the Ukrainian counteroffensive was cut off, and the number of people willing to join the army grew smaller each month. Russia has been advancing in the eastern part of the Donetsk region, and so Ukraine is planning to draft another 160,000 troops into its forces while even more pressure is being put on its military since it was reported that some North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia. This recruitment is supposed to take place over the following three months.

This mobilisation comes following the passed legislation in April by Ukraine’s parliament to help mobilise troops to stop the invasion of Russian forces. The age of legal enlistment was lowered from 27 to 25, and the law requires that every man from this age to 60 log their details into an electronic database so they can be called up. This new system is pushing more men who do not want to serve their country to register, as the conscription officers are on the hunt for those who do not do so. Although these measures help to boost the numbers of military personnel, the poor quality of training and violence by recruiters is making the situation easily criticisable by many.

On a daily basis, the recruitment centres are being filled by tens or hundreds of new recruits. Over the past few months, the number of new soldiers has been slowly rising as the law is getting more unyielding. Officers controlling the recruitment are using text message warnings to ensure that as many capable men as possible join the army. The main issue is that after more than two years of war and with no indication of demobilisation, the service in the military became perceived as slavery that was not temporary.



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MOLDOVA

Photo: Presidency of the Republic of Moldova. 

Presidential Elections in Moldova: Sandu Claims Victory, but the Country’s Divide Remains

Moldova’s pro-European leader, Maia Sandu, has declared victory in a closely watched presidential runoff that many viewed as a choice between deeper ties with Europe and Russia. Sandu, a former World Bank economist who began EU accession talks in June, celebrated her win as a “lesson in democracy,” securing 55% of the vote against 45% for pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo, according to the Central Electoral Commission. Stoianoglo called for calm among his supporters despite the results.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Sandu, emphasising the strength needed to navigate the election’s challenges. This victory follows a recent referendum in which Moldovans narrowly supported changing the constitution to facilitate EU membership, both of which were marred by allegations of Russian interference amid the war in Ukraine.

Moldova’s diaspora was instrumental in the presidential election and the nationwide referendum on October 20, where a narrow majority of 50.35% supported EU membership. However, both results were overshadowed by serious allegations of vote-buying and voter intimidation.

Instead of the strong support Sandu hoped for, the outcomes revealed the judiciary’s inability to protect the democratic process. Moldovan police stated they had “reasonable evidence” of illegal organised transportation of voters to polling stations, both domestically and from abroad. They are investigating air transport activities from Russia to Belarus, Azerbaijan, and Turkey.

In her victory speech, Sandu highlighted the “unprecedented attack” the election faced from “hostile forces.” She asserted that the people’s will could not be thwarted. Sandu’s national security adviser accused Moscow of significant interference, while authorities noted evidence of illegal transportation of voters from Russia. Moldova’s Foreign Ministry reported false bomb threats targeting polling stations in Germany and the UK. Moscow has not yet responded to the election results.

Despite Sandu’s victory, the election results revealed a significant divide within Moldova.

While the capital city of Chisinau and the sizable diaspora largely support EU membership, rural areas and the pro-Russian breakaway regions of Transnistria and Gagauzia oppose joining the bloc. When excluding votes from abroad, Stoianoglo actually received 51.2% of the votes compared to Sandu.

According to political scientists, the election outcome is unlikely to alleviate geopolitical tensions. In fact, they anticipate that geopolitical polarisation will intensify as the country heads into the 2025 legislative elections.

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Moldovan EU future is barely confirmed by the referendum

On October 20, Moldova voted in both the presidential elections and the EU referendum. The referendum´s goal was to enshrine Moldova´s EU future in the Constitution, however, the referendum passed very narrowly – only by 0,92%, as both the elections and referendum were heavily targeted by Russian disinformation campaigns and vote buying.

What was supposed to be a landslide win in the referendum, initiated by President Sandu, became a nail-biting counting of votes. Sandu believed in increasing the election turnout by holding a referendum on the EU membership on the same day as the presidential election. The referendum turnout was around 51%, thus significantly above the needed 33% threshold, however, the “yes” vote to the “Are you in favour of amending the Constitution to allow the Republic of Moldova to join the European Union?” question was around 50,46% and the “no” vote around 49,54%, thereby being separated by several thousand of votes. The polls before the referendum were expecting 55% for “yes” and 34% for “no”. The referendum passed thanks to the “yes” votes by the Moldovan diaspora, as a large part of Moldovan citizens, especially in the rural regions, voted against the Moldovan EU future.

The referendum campaign was heavily hit by Russian disinformation campaigns and hybrid attacks, with estimated costs of around €100 million. Sandu herself blamed “criminal groups, working together with foreign forces hostile to our national interests,” calling it an unprecedented assault on Moldova’s democracy. International observers warned that instances of vote buying were recorded during the voting, but overall, they praised Moldova for a well-organised and efficient election and referendum. Moldovan authorities claim they have evidence that around 300,000 votes were to be bought by criminal groups.

As reported by CNN, fugitive and pro-Russian oligarch Shor is partly behind the vote buying. On his Telegram account, he said he would pay voters the equivalent of $28 for registering with his campaign and more if they voted against the referendum. Moreover, the Kremlin rejected their involvement in the vote buying and in turn, called Moldova to explain alleged “anomalies” in Moldova’s vote count.



Sources:
  • Vitalie Calugareanu & Keno Verseck, Deutsche Welle, “Moldovan Police explain how Russia meddled in recent polls”, https://www.dw.com/en/moldovan-police-explain-how-russia-meddled-in-recent-polls/a-70636678
  • Tomáš Čorej & Mirek Tóda, Denník N, “Moldavsko je rozdelená krajina, kde zafungovala ruská propaganda. Tri veci, ktoré ukázali voľby a mimoriadne tesné referendum”, https://dennikn.sk/4261235/moldavsko-je-rozdelena-krajina-kde-zafungovala-ruska-propaganda-tri-veci-ktore-ukazali-volby-a-mimoriadne-tesne-referendum/
  • Deutsche Welle, “Moldova narrowly votes ‚yes‘ to EU membership”, https://www.dw.com/en/moldova-narrowly-votes-yes-to-eu-membership/a-70544401
  • Le Monde, “Moldova president says ‚won justly in unjust struggle‘ in EU referendum”, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/europe/article/2024/10/21/moldova-president-says-won-justly-in-unjust-struggle-in-eu-referendum_6730015_143.html
Voter corruption schemes before the presidential elections
Just a few days before the second round of presidential elections in Moldova, the country’s National Anticorruption Centre (CNA) imposed high penalties worth over 100.000 EUR for electoral corruption. According to the CNA, it received about 1,000 reports of these cases in the past couple of days. The sum of these fines is the highest ever applied for electoral corruption in Moldova. It has been confirmed that a system of votes-for-payment was set up by the Russian-based oligarch Ilan Shor, and the scheme was coordinated with the Kremlin. It is assumed during the police investigation that these major voter fraud attempts were developed by Russian special services and implemented by the Shor criminal organisation.

With these allegations, as Moldova is now an EU candidate country, its status and democracy are being threatened by the claims of voter fraud, interference with elections and intimidation. Therefore, it will be crucial for the pro-European candidate Maia Sandu to get support from as many as possible so that Moldova can join the EU by 2030 as planned. The chances are that the Russian government is trying to undermine this effort by interrupting the voting process and manipulating the results of elections overall. Alleged Russian-backed fugitive Shor should be the “bridge” between Moscow and Moldova’s elections. While he denies any voter fraud activities, law enforcement agencies do see him as responsible.

The mechanism of voter corruption is based on the network of members who are paid each month to pay the voters to vote for a certain candidate, creating passive electoral corruption. This also involves voters receiving goods, services or privileges they are not supposed to claim only because they vote in a certain way. Persons who are the intermediaries for this scheme risk a couple of years in prison and a fine, while the illegal financing of political parties from banned sources is sanctioned by an even greater punishment. At this time, Sandu’s opponent, Alexandr Stoianoglo is involved in several criminal cases, some of them being passive corruption charges, and so it can be assumed that he would be embroiled in the voter corruption sponsored by Russia as well.

 

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